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Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

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  • Charles W. Calomiris
  • Jonathan Pritchett

Abstract

Lincoln's election produced Southern secession, war, and abolition. Using a new dataset on slave sales, we examine connections between news and slave prices for the period 1856-1861. By August 1861, slave prices had declined by roughly one-third from their 1860 peak. That decline was similar for all age and sex cohorts and thus did not reflect expected emancipation without compensation. The decision to secede reflected beliefs that the North would not invade and that emancipation without compensation was unlikely. Both were encouraged by Lincoln's conciliatory tone before the attack on Fort Sumter, and subsequently dashed by Lincoln's willingness to wage all-out war. (JEL D72, D74, D83, G14, H77, N31, N41)

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  • Charles W. Calomiris & Jonathan Pritchett, 2016. "Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:1:p:1-23
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20131483
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    1. Jonathan Pritchett & Jessica Hayes, 2011. "The Occupations of Slaves Sold in New Orleans: Missing Values, Cheap Talk, or Informative Advertising," Working Papers 1113, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Pritchett, Jonathan & Smith, Mallorie, 2013. "Sequential Sales as a Test of Adverse Selection in the Market for Slaves," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 477-497, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. González, Felipe & Marshall, Guillermo & Naidu, Suresh, 2017. "Start-up Nation? Slave Wealth and Entrepreneurship in Civil War Maryland," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 373-405, June.
    2. Lacroix, Jean & Mitchener, Kris & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2023. "Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 18377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Philipp Ager & Leah Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2021. "The Intergenerational Effects of a Large Wealth Shock: White Southerners after the Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3767-3794, November.
    4. Paul Hallwood, 2017. "Comment: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," Working papers 2017-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Paul Hallwood, 2018. "The Confederacy and the American Civil War, 1861-1865: Greed Or Grievance?," Working papers 2018-18, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Melissa Rubio-Ramos, 2022. "From Plantations to Prisons: The Race Gap in Incarceration After the Abolition of Slavery in the U.S," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 195, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    7. Richard C. Sutch, 2018. "The Economics of African American Slavery: The Cliometrics Debate," NBER Working Papers 25197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Laughren, Kevin & Sheremeta, Roman, 2020. "War and conflict in economics: Theories, applications, and recent trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 998-1013.
    9. Trevon D. Logan, 2018. "Do Black Politicians Matter?," NBER Working Papers 24190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jenny Bourne, 2022. "Double take: Abolition and the size of transferred property rights," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(7), pages 1706-1718, December.
    11. Laurie Binge & Willem H Boshoff, 2016. "Modelling South African Art Prices: An analysis of post-2000 price behaviour," Working Papers 18/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Conor Lennon, 2016. "Slave Escape, Prices, and the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 669-695.
    13. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2021. "Measuring alternative asset prices in an emerging market: The case of the South African art market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    14. Logan, Trevon D. & Pritchett, Jonathan B., 2018. "On the marital status of U. S. slaves: Evidence from Touro Infirmary, New Orleans, Louisiana," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 50-63.
    15. Hong, Sok Chul & Hwang, Inhyuk, 2024. "Race, immunity, and lifespan: Unraveling the effect of early-life exposure to malaria risk on lifespan," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

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