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Dynamic Procurement under Uncertainty: Optimal Design and Implications for Incomplete Contracts

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  • Malin Arve
  • David Martimort

Abstract

We characterize the optimal dynamic contract for a long-term basic service when an uncertain add-on is required later on. Introducing firm risk aversion has two impacts. Profits for the basic service can be backloaded to induce cheaper information revelation for this service: an Income Effect which reduces output distortions. The firm must also bear some risk to induce information revelation for the add-on. This Risk Effect reduces the level of the add-on but hardens information revelation for the basic service. The interaction between these effects has important implications for the dynamics of distortions, contract renegotiation, and the value of incomplete contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Malin Arve & David Martimort, 2016. "Dynamic Procurement under Uncertainty: Optimal Design and Implications for Incomplete Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3238-3274, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:11:p:3238-74
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20150275
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    2. Indranil Chakraborty & Fahad Khalil & Jacques Lawarree, 2021. "Competitive procurement with ex post moral hazard," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(1), pages 179-206, March.
    3. Karakoç, Gülen & Pagnozzi, Marco & Piccolo, Salvatore, 2022. "The value of transparency in dynamic contracting with entry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Di Maria, Corrado & Lange, Ian & Lazarova, Emiliya, 2018. "A look upstream: Market restructuring, risk, procurement contracts and efficiency," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 35-83.
    5. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2018. "Termination Fees and Contract Design in Public-Private Partnerships," Working Papers 2018.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Khalil, Fahad & Lawarree, Jacques & Rodivilov, Alexander, 2020. "Learning from failures: Optimal contracts for experimentation and production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Dakshina G. De Silva & Timothy Dunne & Georgia Kosmopoulou & Carlos Lamarche, 2015. "Project modifications and bidding in highway procurement auctions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Arve, Malin & Honryo, Takakazu, 2015. "Delegation and Communication," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 524, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    9. Krasikov, Ilia & Lamba, Rohit, 2021. "A theory of dynamic contracting with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Fiocco, Raffaele & Guo, Dongyu, 2020. "Regulatory risk, vertical integration, and upstream investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Shivam Gupta & Anupam Agrawal & Jennifer K. Ryan, 2023. "Agile contracting: Managing incentives under uncertain needs," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 972-988, March.
    12. Shenzhe Jiang & Junjie Xia & Jiajun Xu & Jianye Yan, 2023. "A theory of National Development Bank: long-term investment and the agency problem," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 995-1024, October.
    13. Giuseppe Francesco Gori & Patrizia Lattarulo & Marco Mariani, 2021. "The Expediting Effect of Monitoring on Infrastructural Works. A Regression-Discontinuity Approach with Multiple Assignment Variables," Papers 2102.09625, arXiv.org.
    14. Rohit Lamba & Ilia Krasikov, 2017. "A Theory of Dynamic Contracting with Financial Constraints," 2017 Meeting Papers 1544, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Martimort, David & Arve, Malin, 2023. "Auctioning Long-Term Projects under Financial Constraints," TSE Working Papers 23-1469, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2024.
    16. Chifeng Dai, 2021. "Optimal sequential contract with a risk‐averse supplier," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 92-125, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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