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Heterogeneity in the Impact of Economic Cycles and the Great Recession: Effects within and across the Income Distribution

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  • Marianne Bitler
  • Hilary Hoynes

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the effects of economic cycles on low- to moderate-income families. We use variation across states and over time to estimate the effects of cycles on the distribution of income, using fine gradations of the household income-to-poverty ratio. We also explore how the effects of cycles affect the risk of falling into poverty across demographic groups, focusing on age, race/ethnicity, and family type. We conclude by testing to see whether these relationships have changed in the Great Recession. We discuss the results in light of the changes in the social safety net in recent decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes, 2015. "Heterogeneity in the Impact of Economic Cycles and the Great Recession: Effects within and across the Income Distribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 154-160, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:105:y:2015:i:5:p:154-60
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151055
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Rebecca M. Blank & David Card, 1993. "Poverty, Income Distribution, and Growth: Are They Still Connected," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 285-340.
    3. James Hines & Hilary Hoynes & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats," Working Papers 833, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    5. Bruce D. Meyer & James X. Sullivan, 2011. "Consumption and Income Poverty Over the Business Cycle," Research in Labor Economics, in: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution, pages 51-82, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 1-74.
    7. Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes & Elira Kuka, 2014. "Child Poverty and the Great Recession in the United States," Papers inwopa724, Innocenti Working Papers.
    8. Craig Gundersen & James Ziliak, 2004. "Poverty and macroeconomic performance across space, race, and family structure," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(1), pages 61-86, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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