IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v103y2013i3p55-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn't Matter

Author

Listed:
  • Christina D. Romer
  • David H. Romer

Abstract

Monetary policy-makers' beliefs about how the economy functions are a key determinant of the conduct of policy. That monetary policy has little impact under the prevailing circumstances is a belief which has resurfaced periodically over the Federal Reserve's 100-year history. In both the 1930s and the 1970s a belief in the ineffectiveness of monetary policy led to policy inaction and poor economic outcomes. For some of the recent period, the same view appears to have limited the policy response to prolonged high unemployment in the presence of low inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2013. "The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn't Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 55-60, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:3:p:55-60
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.3.55
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/may2013/P2013_4411_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/may2013/P2013_4411_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226519999 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 867-901.
    3. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2009. "The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit," Policy Briefs PB09-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Nelson Edward, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50, July.
    5. Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
    6. Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Romer, Christina D., 2006. "Was the Federal Reserve Constrained by the Gold Standard During the Great Depression? Evidence from the 1932 Open Market Purchase Program," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 140-176, March.
    7. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093, October.
    2. Owen F. Humpage & Sanchita Mukherjee, 2013. "Even keel and the Great Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Edward Nelson, 2009. "An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 333-368, June.
    4. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2013. "The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 393-438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2013. "Shifts in US Federal Reserve Goals and Tactics for Monetary Policy: A Role for Penitence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 65-86, Fall.
    6. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2007. "The price puzzle and indeterminacy in an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 2006-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Dean Scrimgeour, 2008. "The Great Inflation Was Not Asymmetric: International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 799-815, June.
    8. Pittaluga, Giovanni Battista & Seghezza, Elena, 2012. "The Great Inflation in Italy: A Political Economy View - La Grande Inflazione in Italia: un’interpretazione alla luce della political economy," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(1), pages 65-81.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke, 2013. "A Century of U.S. Central Banking: Goals, Frameworks, Accountability : a speech at the \"The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Futu," Speech 617, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Best, Gabriela, 2017. "Policy Preferences And Policy Makers' Beliefs: The Great Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1957-1995, December.
    11. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Christopher Hanes & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 2013. "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 449-489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    14. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    15. Duca, John V., 2017. "The Great Depression versus the Great Recession in the U.S.: How fiscal, monetary, and financial polices compare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-64.
    16. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    17. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2016. "The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    18. Edward Nelson, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    19. Klodiana Istrefi, 2019. "In Fed Watchers’ Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy," Working papers 725, Banque de France.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:3:p:55-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.