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Adaptation to Climate Change in Preindustrial Iceland

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  • Matthew A. Turner
  • Jeffrey S. Rosenthal
  • Jian Chen
  • Chunyan Hao

Abstract

We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help determine the population growth rate in pre-industrial Iceland: a year 1 degree Celsius cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders adapt to prolonged changes in climate after 20 years. These adaptations reduce the short run effect of annual change in temperature by about 60%. Finally, a 1 degree Celsius sustained decrease in temperature decreases the steady state population by 10% to 26%.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew A. Turner & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jian Chen & Chunyan Hao, 2012. "Adaptation to Climate Change in Preindustrial Iceland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 250-255, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:3:p:250-55
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.102.3.250
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eggertsson, Thrainn, 1996. "No experiments, monumental disasters: Why it took a thousand years to develop a specialized fishing industry in Iceland," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, July.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Impacts of climate change > Impact of weather shocks

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    Cited by:

    1. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Andrea Seim & Heli Huhtamaa, 2021. "Climate and society in European history," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.

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