IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aag/wpaper/v22y2018i1p420-459.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Joint Distribution Of Forecasts And Outcomes: Impact Of Non-Normality On The Measurement Of Forecasting Skill, With Applications To Analysts’ Target Prices

Author

Listed:
  • S.A. Bond

    (University of Cincinnati)

  • Q. Chang

    (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency)

  • J. Knight

    (University of Western Ontario)

  • S.E. Satchell

    (Birkbeck College and University of Sydney)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed analysis of the joint distribution of forecasts and outcomes in the context of financial forecasting. We use Edgeworth expansions to model this joint distribution. In turn this allows us to assess the impact of non-normality, either in forecasts, or outcomes or both. This leads to multiple results; we can deduce the distribution of the forecast error; we can analyse the properties of the hit rate (H), as a statistical concept in its own right, and also in its relation to the information coefficient (IC); two tools that are used in the assessment of forecasting ability by active fund managers and financial analysts. Our paper contributes to the recent econometric literature on directional forecasting as well as the empirical literature that examines analyst performance. We find that the close link between H and IC under normality breaks down in the more general case. We provide further evidence on the richness of this approach by looking at simulation and empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • S.A. Bond & Q. Chang & J. Knight & S.E. Satchell, 2018. "Joint Distribution Of Forecasts And Outcomes: Impact Of Non-Normality On The Measurement Of Forecasting Skill, With Applications To Analysts’ Target Prices," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 420-459, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:420-459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iads.site/Joint-Distribution-of-Forecasts-and-Outcomes_ADS
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brown, Lawrence D. & Call, Andrew C. & Clement, Michael B. & Sharp, Nathan Y., 2016. "The activities of buy-side analysts and the determinants of their stock recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 139-156.
    2. Gu, Chen & Guo, Xu & Zhang, Chengping, 2022. "Analyst target price revisions and institutional herding," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Leonardo Fernandez, 2012. "Price Discovery, Investor Distraction and Analyst Recommendations Under Continuous Disclosure Requirements in Australia," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2012, January-A.
    4. Jin, Han & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wu, Yuliang & Xu, Bin, 2023. "Can star analysts make superior coverage decisions in poor information environment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Pei Peter Lung & Pisun Xu, 2014. "Tipping and Option Trading," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 671-701, September.
    6. Guixiang Cao & Jinghuai She & Chengzi Cao & Qiuxiang Cao, 2024. "Environmental Protection Tax and Green Innovation: The Mediating Role of Digitalization and ESG," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-26, January.
    7. Miwa, Kotaro, 2023. "How quickly do investors react to analyst reports? Evidence from reports released outside trading hours," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    9. David, Joel M. & Simonovska, Ina, 2016. "Correlated beliefs, returns, and stock market volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 58-77.
    10. Mohammadi, Ali & Basir, Nada O. & Beyhaghi, Mehdi, 2015. "Research Intensity and Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast: Signaling Effects of Patents," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 397, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    11. Joana Almeida & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2021. "Accuracy of European Stock Target Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    13. Chen, Carl R. & Diltz, J. David & Huang, Ying & Lung, Peter P., 2011. "Stock and option market divergence in the presence of noisy information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2001-2020, August.
    14. Osman Yukselturk & Jon Tucker, 2015. "The impact of analyst sentiment on UK stock recommendations and target prices," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6-7), pages 869-904, December.
    15. Ho, Tuan & Nguyen, Yen & Parikh, Bhavik & Vo, Dinh-Tri, 2020. "Does foreign exchange risk matter to equity research analysts when forecasting stock prices? Evidence from U.S. firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Rui Liu & Jiayou Liang & Haolong Chen & Yujia Hu, 2024. "Analyst Reports and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Chinese Market," Papers 2411.08726, arXiv.org.
    17. Budi Frensidy & Ryan Joshua Pelealu & Robiyanto Robiyanto, 2020. "Analysis of Equity Valuation Models and Target Price Accuracy: An Evidence From Analyst Reports in Indonesia," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, October.
    18. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
    20. Alexander Nekrasov, 2016. "Equity Value as a Function of (eps1, eps2, dps1, bvps, beta): Concepts and Realities. Discussion of Ohlson and Johannesson," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 100-105, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hit rate; Information Coefficient; Edgeworth expansions; financial forecasting; Analysts’ Target Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:420-459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Pan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dfasitw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.