IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wzbcin/spii200813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Diderot´s rule

Author

Listed:
  • Beck, Jonathan

Abstract

Like many new products, newly released creative goods such as books, music records and movies are sometimes ‘surprise’ hits but often flops. Experimental and empirical research suggests that it is hard to predict the demand for a new creative good, and therefore its success, even for industry experts. Rules of thumb on the quantitative properties of demand uncertainty exist for various creative industries – including a rule by Denis Diderot (1763) according to which one out of ten published books is a commercial success. Yet, representative evidence on any industry’s new-product success rate is scarce. This paper studies new-product success in a random sample of novels. Its empirical strategy to identify success – a simple characterization of author-publisher bargaining combined with a parsimonious model of new-product diffusion – is based on the common observation that word-of-mouth is a crucial success factor in creative industries. Parametric and semi-parametric estimation results corroborate Diderot’s rule: between 10 and 15% of novels enjoy significantly positive effects of word-of-mouth.

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Jonathan, 2008. "Diderot´s rule," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2008-13, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbcin:spii200813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/51216/1/565200860.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob Goldenberg & Donald R. Lehmann & David Mazursky, 2001. "The Idea Itself and the Circumstances of Its Emergence as Predictors of New Product Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 69-84, January.
    2. Clerides, Sofronis K., 2002. "Book value: intertemporal pricing and quality discrimination in the US market for books," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1385-1408, December.
    3. Bulow, Jeremy & Klemperer, Paul, 1996. "Auctions versus Negotiations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 180-194, March.
    4. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Anita Elberse & Mark A.A.M. Leenders, 2006. "The Motion Picture Industry: Critical Issues in Practice, Current Research, and New Research Directions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 638-661, 11-12.
    5. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "On the Econometrics of the Bass Diffusion Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 255-268, July.
    6. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    7. Giles, David E., 2006. "Superstardom in the US popular music industry revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 68-74, July.
    8. Prince, Jeffrey T. & Simon, Daniel H., 2009. "Has the Internet accelerated the diffusion of new products?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1269-1277, October.
    9. Jonathan Beck, 2007. "The sales effect of word of mouth: a model for creative goods and estimates for novels," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(1), pages 5-23, March.
    10. Richard Jensen, 1988. "Information Cost and Innovation Adoption Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 230-239, February.
    11. Chrysanthos Dellarocas, 2003. "The Digitization of Word of Mouth: Promise and Challenges of Online Feedback Mechanisms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1407-1424, October.
    12. Dina Mayzlin & Judith A. Chevalier, 2003. "The Effect of Word of Mouth on Sales: Online Book Reviews," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm413, Yale School of Management.
    13. Charles C. Moul, 2007. "Measuring Word of Mouth's Impact on Theatrical Movie Admissions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 859-892, December.
    14. Christophe Van den Bulte & Yogesh V. Joshi, 2007. "New Product Diffusion with Influentials and Imitators," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 400-421, 05-06.
    15. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Scorcu, Antonello E. & Vici, Laura, 2008. "Demand distribution dynamics in creative industries: The market for books in Italy," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 257-268, September.
    16. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053.
    17. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Khan, Beethika, 2003. "Adoption of New Technology," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3wg4p528, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    18. Jonathan Beck, 2004. "Fixed, Focal, Fair? Book Prices Under Optional Resale Price Maintenance," CIG Working Papers SP II 2004-15, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    19. C. E. Bannier, 2004. "Book Reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 83(1), pages 98-102, September.
    20. Benny Moldovanu & Manfred Tietzel, 1998. "Goethe's Second-Price Auction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 854-859, August.
    21. Sofronis Clerides & George Kassinis, 2009. "Modeling the diffusion of strategies: an application to exporting," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 18(3), pages 415-434, June.
    22. Deneckere, Raymond & Marvel, Howard P & Peck, James, 1997. "Demand Uncertainty and Price Maintenance: Markdowns as Destructive Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 619-641, September.
    23. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167.
    24. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
    25. Richard E. Caves, 2003. "Contracts Between Art and Commerce," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 73-83, Spring.
    26. Dana, James D, Jr & Spier, Kathryn E, 2001. "Revenue Sharing and Vertical Control in the Video Rental Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 223-245, September.
    27. Alan T. Sorensen, 2007. "Bestseller Lists And Product Variety," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 715-738, December.
    28. James D. Dana, Jr. & Kathryn E. Spier, 2001. "Revenue Sharing and Vertical Control in the Video Rental Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 223-245, September.
    29. Dellarocas, Chrysanthos, 2003. "The Digitization of Word-of-mouth: Promise and Challenges of Online Feedback Mechanisms," Working papers 4296-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    30. Hansmann, Henry & Kraakman, Reinier, 1992. "Hands-Tying Contracts: Book Publishing, Venture Capital Financing, and Secured Debt," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 628-655, October.
    31. R. Boadway, 2004. "Book Reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 83(1), pages 95-98, September.
    32. M. C. Jones, 2006. "Book Review," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1149-1151.
    33. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-858, December.
    34. Gérard P. Cachon & Martin A. Lariviere, 2005. "Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 30-44, January.
    35. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506.
    36. repec:rim:rimwps:09-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Ken Hendricks & Alan Sorensen, 2009. "Information and the Skewness of Music Sales," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 324-369, April.
    38. Clifford M. Hurvich & Jeffrey S. Simonoff & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1998. "Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-293.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Beck, 2007. "The sales effect of word of mouth: a model for creative goods and estimates for novels," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(1), pages 5-23, March.
    2. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    3. Michel Clement & Anke Hille & Bernd Lucke & Christina Schmidt-Stölting & Frank Sambeth, 2008. "Der Einfluss von Rankings auf den Absatz — Eine empirische Analyse der Wirkung von Bestsellerlisten und Rangpositionen auf den Erfolg von Büchern," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 60(8), pages 746-777, December.
    4. Ohio University & Department of Economics & Hailey Hayeon Joo, 2009. "Social Learning and Optimal Advertising in the Motion Picture Industry," 2009 Meeting Papers 513, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Luca Aguzzoni & Elena Argentesi & Lorenzo Ciari & Tomaso Duso & Massimo Tognoni, 2016. "Ex post Merger Evaluation in the U.K. Retail Market for Books," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 170-200, March.
    6. Claussen, Jörg & Kretschmer, Tobias & Mayrhofer, Philip, 2010. "Incentives for Quality over Time – The Case of Facebook Applications," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 12500, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    7. John Ashworth & Bruno Heyndels & Kristien Werck, 2010. "Expert judgements and the demand for novels in Flanders," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(3), pages 197-218, August.
    8. Subhajyoti Bandyopadhyay & Anand A. Paul, 2010. "Equilibrium Returns Policies in the Presence of Supplier Competition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 846-857, 09-10.
    9. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "How do theatrical box office revenues affect DVD retail sales? Australian empirical evidence," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(3), pages 159-179, August.
    10. Knox, George & Eliashberg, Jehoshua, 2009. "The consumer's rent vs. buy decision in the rentailer," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 125-135.
    11. Jörg Claussen & Tobias Kretschmer & Philip Mayrhofer, 2013. "The Effects of Rewarding User Engagement: The Case of Facebook Apps," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 186-200, March.
    12. David Godes & Dina Mayzlin & Yubo Chen & Sanjiv Das & Chrysanthos Dellarocas & Bruce Pfeiffer & Barak Libai & Subrata Sen & Mengze Shi & Peeter Verlegh, 2005. "The Firm's Management of Social Interactions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 415-428, December.
    13. Moon, Ilkyeong & Feng, Xuehao, 2017. "Supply chain coordination with a single supplier and multiple retailers considering customer arrival times and route selection," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 78-97.
    14. Canoy, Marcel & van Ours, Jan C. & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2006. "The Economics of Books," Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, in: V.A. Ginsburgh & D. Throsby (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 721-761, Elsevier.
    15. Edgardo Arturo Ayala Gaytán, 2009. "Social network externalities and price dispersion in online markets," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-28, November.
    16. Bethany Everett & David Rehkopf & Richard Rogers, 2013. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Education and Mortality: An Examination of Cohort, Race/Ethnic, and Gender Differences," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(6), pages 893-917, December.
    17. Aloys Prinz, 2017. "Rankings as coordination games: the Dutch Top 2000 pop song ranking," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 41(4), pages 379-401, November.
    18. Blomkvist, Katarina & Kappen, Philip & Zander, Ivo, 2014. "Superstar inventors—Towards a people-centric perspective on the geography of technological renewal in the multinational corporation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 669-682.
    19. Kunter, Marcus, 2012. "Coordination via cost and revenue sharing in manufacturer–retailer channels," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 477-486.
    20. Krisztin, Tamás, 2018. "Semi-parametric spatial autoregressive models in freight generation modeling," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 121-143.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    new-product success rate; demand uncertainty; word-of-mouth; creative industries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbcin:spii200813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wzbbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.