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Duration dependence, lagged duration dependence, and occurrence dependence in individual employment histories

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  • Niedergesäss, Markus

Abstract

This paper investigates the form and magnitude of a variety of state dependence effects for prime-aged men in Germany. I differentiate between three labor market states: employment, unemployment, and out of labor force. Results indicate that all forms of state dependence are present in the data, in particular, there is strong duration dependence in employment and unemployment. Furthermore, past unemployment experiences are scarring and make future unemployment more likely while past employment experiences help to find new employment, but do not help to remain employed. Simulations are conducted in order to investigate the effects of possible interventions in the labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Niedergesäss, Markus, 2012. "Duration dependence, lagged duration dependence, and occurrence dependence in individual employment histories," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 26, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuewef:26
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    state dependence; transition data; event history analysis; unobserved heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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