IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/new/wpaper/1509.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Lang

    (Centre d’Economie de Paris Nord (CEPN), Université de Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité)

  • Mark Setterfield

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract

We address the question posed in the title of this paper by investigating recent developments in the literature that estimates the NAIRU. A necessary condition for the existence of a NAIRU is dynamic homogeneity: the Phillips curve should be homogenous of degree one in lagged and/or expected inflation. But contemporary approaches to estimating the NAIRU typically assume rather than test for dynamic homogeneity, thus assuming (rather than testing for) the existence of a NAIRU. We argue that these developments remove the NAIRU from the domain of testable hypotheses and transform the concept into an article of faith. This does not constitute scientific progress.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU," Working Papers 1509, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:1509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2015/NSSR_WP_092015.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    2. Dean Baker & Andrew Glyn & David Howell & John Schmitt, 2002. "Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment: A Critical Assessment of the Cross-Country Evidence," SCEPA working paper series. 2002-17, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    2. Mark Setterfield & Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers 2201, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    2. Herbert Buscher & Hubert Gabrisch, 2012. "The synchronization of wage dynamics across EMU members. A test of the endogeneity hypothesis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 327-340, August.
    3. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "Unemployment in an Interdependent World," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 262-301, February.
    4. Richard B. Freeman, 2007. "Labor Market Institutions Around the World," NBER Working Papers 13242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2004. "The Brussels-Frankfurt-Washington Consensus. Old and New Tradeoffs in Economics," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    6. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
    7. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Monetary policy and European unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 94-108, Spring.
    8. Simon Deakin & Prabirjit Sarkar, 2008. "Assessing the Long-Run Economic Impact of Labour Law Systems: A Theoretical Reappraisal and Analysis of New Time Series Data," WEF Working Papers 0043, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    9. Bruno Amable, 2014. "Who wants the Contrat de Travail Unique? Social Support for Labor Market Flexibilization in France," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 636-662, October.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    12. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Sergio Destefanis & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2010. "Labour‐market performance in the OECD: some recent cross‐country evidence," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(7), pages 713-731, October.
    14. Sujit Kapadia, 2003. "The Capital Stock and Equilibrium Unemployment: A New Theoretical Perspective," Economics Series Working Papers 181, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2011. "A small New Keynesian state space model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 672-684.
    16. Alberto Behar, 2009. "Tax Wedges, Unemployment Benefits and Labour Market Outcomes in the New EU Members," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 069-092, March.
    17. Malki, Mostafa & Thompson, Henry, 2014. "Morocco and the US Free Trade Agreement: A specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 269-274.
    18. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
    19. Wei Cui & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Weining Wang, 2015. "Estimation of NAIRU with Inflation Expectation Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-010, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    20. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    21. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; dynamic homogeneity; hysteresis; testable hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:1509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Setterfield (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/denewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.