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Estimating Europe’s natural rates

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  • Tino Berger

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  • Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:40:y:2011:i:2:p:521-536
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0342-2
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    1. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    2. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    3. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    10. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    11. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    12. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
    13. Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
    14. Charles R. Nelson & Jaejoon Lee, 2007. "Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzzle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 161-178.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, May.
    17. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    18. Arabinda Basistha, 2007. "Trend‐cycle correlation, drift break and the estimation of trend and cycle in Canadian GDP," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 584-606, May.
    19. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, November.
    20. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, July.
    21. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    22. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    23. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert, 2008. "Unemployment Persistence And The Nairu: A Bayesian Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 281-299, July.
    24. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    25. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
    26. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    27. Fabrice Orlandi & Karl Pichelmann, 2000. "Disentangling trend and cycle in the EUR-11 unemployment series," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 140, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    28. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    2. Mohamed A. M. Sallam & Mohamed R. Neffati, 2019. "Estimation and Analysis of the Output Gap for the Saudi Economy; Econometric Study (1970-2016)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 267-284, February.
    3. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
    4. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    5. Stephan, Gaëtan & Lecumberry, Julien, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 49-54.
    6. Gaëtan Stephan & Julien Lecumberry, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Post-Print halshs-01238494, HAL.
    7. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.

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