This paper analyzes the sustainability of intergenerational transfers in politico-economic equilibrium. We argue that these transfers arise naturally in a Markov perfect equilibrium in the fundamental sate variables. In contrast to earlier literature, our explanation does not resort to altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies but rests on the incentive for young households to monopolize capital accumulation, as pointed out by Kotlikoff and Rosenthal (1990). Since transfers to the old are instrumental in that respect, the vote-maximizing platform under electoral competition sustains a large social security system. Introducing fully rational voters and probabilistic voting in the standard Diamond (1965) OLG model, we find that transfers in politico-economic equilibrium are too high relative to the social optimum. Standard functional form assumptions yield analytical solutions for both the Ramsey and the probabilistic voting case. Under realistic parameter values, the model predicts a social security tax rate of 12 percent, as compared to a Ramsey tax rate of 3.5 percent. Other predictions of the model are also consistent with the data. Analytical solutions for the case with endogenous labor supply and tax distortions show the results of the model to be robust.
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Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number
731.
Length: 34 pages Date of creation: 30 Jun 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0731
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
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Michele Boldrin & Maria Cristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005.
"Fertility and Social Security,"
Levine's Bibliography
666156000000000506, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Other versions:
Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005.
"Fertility and Social Security,"
NBER Working Papers
11146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005.
"Fertility and Social Security,"
Staff Report
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John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001.
"The Survival of the Welfare State,"
Economics Working Papers
603, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
[Downloadable!]
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Hassler, John & Mora, Jose & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2002.
"The Survival of the Welfare State,"
Seminar Papers
704, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
[Downloadable!]
John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Abrizio Zilibotti, 2003.
"The Survival of the Welfare State,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 87-112, March.
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Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, .
"The Evolution of Retirement,"
Working Papers
278, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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