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Systemic Crises and Growth

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Author Info
Romain Ranciere
Aaron Tornell
Frank Westermann

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Abstract

In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have, on average, grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature. To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where contract enforce-ability problems generate borrowing constraints and impede growth. In the set of financially liberalized countries with a moderate degree of contract enforceability, systemic risk-taking relaxes borrowing constraints and increases investment. This leads to higher mean growth, but also to greater incidence of crises. We find that the negative link between skewness and growth is indeed strongest in this set of countries, validating the restrictions imposed by the model's equilibrium.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11076.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11076

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Quinn, Dennis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2008. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," CEPR Discussion Papers 7013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2005. "How Does Financial Liberalization affect Economic Growth?," Seminar Papers 736, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Beck, Thorsten, 2006. "Creating an efficient financial system : challenges in a global economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3856, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Philip R. Lane IIIS, Trinity College Dublin and CEPR, 2009. "Innovation and Financial Globalisation," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp299, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," HEI Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thierry Tressel & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Financial Globalization and the Governance of Domestic Financial Intermediaries," IMF Working Papers 07/47, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Inci Ötker & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp272, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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