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Fertility and Social Security

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Author Info
Michele Boldrin
Mariacristina De Nardi
Larry E. Jones

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Abstract

The data show that an increase in government provided old-age pensions is strongly correlated with a reduction in fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility: one by Barro and Becker (1989), and one inspired by Caldwell (1978, 1982) and developed by Boldrin and Jones (2002). In Barro and Becker's model parents have children because they perceive their children's lives as a continuation of their own. In Boldrin and Jones' framework parents procreate because children care about their parents' utility, and thus provide them with old-age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small, whereas the effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed Europe-U.S. fertility differences both across countries and across time.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 359.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:359

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Keywords: Social security ; Financial markets;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Papagni, Erasmo, 2008. "The Long-run Effects of Household Liquidity Constraints and Taxation on Fertility, Education, Saving and Growth," MPRA Paper 12793, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Heinrich Hock & David N. Weil, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 12140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Volker Meier & Matthias Wrede, 2005. "Pension, Fertility, and Education," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jones, Larry E. & Schoonbroodt, Alice, . "Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0706, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aoki, Takaaki, 2008. "On the Implications of Two-way Altruism in Human-Capital-Based OLG Model," MPRA Paper 12492, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francesco C.Billari & Vincenzo Galasso, 2008. "What Explains fertility? Evidence from Italian pension reforms," Working Papers 343, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Mikko Puhakka & Matti Viren, 2006. "The Effects of the Size of the Public Sector on Fertility," Discussion Papers 8, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Martín Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2005. "Sustaining Social Security," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Erasmo Papagni, 2008. "The Long-run Effects of Household Liquidity Constraints and Taxation on Fertility, Education, Saving, and Growth," Discussion Papers 11_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2007. "Complements versus Substitutes and Trends in Fertility Choice in Dynastic Models," NBER Working Papers 13680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 55-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Brasil Gondim, João Luis & Casamatta, Georges, 2008. "Voting on Parametric Reforms of the Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," CEPR Discussion Papers 6993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2008. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Working Papers 14266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2009. "Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 137-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Michael Bar & Oksana Leukhina, . "Demographic Transition and Industrial Revolution: A Macroeconomic Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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