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Predicting Indian Business Cycles-- Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors

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Author Info
Pami Dua (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India and Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York)
Anirvan Banerji (Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York)

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the growth rate of the DSE-ECRI Indian leading index for exports for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in the growth rate of Indian exports. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of India’s 17 major trading partners. Leading indices of India’s major trading partners were developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the real-time performance of the growth rate of the leading index of Indian exports has been creditable in the last seven years since its construction in 2001. In conjunction with the DSE-ECRI Indian Leading Index, designed to monitor the domestic economy, the exports leading index forms a sound foundation for a pioneering effort to monitor Indian economic cycles.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 156.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:156

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2000. "An Index of Coincident Economic Indicators for the Indian Economy," Working papers 73, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  2. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  3. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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