This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Watson, Mark W
Abstract

Average postwar expansions are twice as long as prewar expansions and contractions are one-half as long. This paper investigates three possible explanations. The first explanation is that shocks to the economy have been smaller in the postwar period. The second explanation is that the composition of output has shifted from very cyclical sectors to less cyclical sectors. The third explanation is that the apparent stabilization is largely spurious and is caused by differences in the way that prewar and postwar business-cycle reference dates were chosen by the National Bureau of Economic Research The evidence presented in this paper favors this third explanation. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28199403%2984%3A1%3C24%3ABDAPSO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-G&origin=repec
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 84 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 24-46
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:84:y:1994:i:1:p:24-46

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 01/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2003. "The missing link: Using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 492, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  4. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for India's Exports," Occasional papers 1, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," NBER Working Papers 6948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Concordance in business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles-- Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors," Working papers 156, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122. [Downloadable!]
  16. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You may want to explore EconPapers, which displays the same data as IDEAS in a different way.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-31.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.