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Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

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Author Info
Viv B. Hall
C. John McDermott

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Abstract

We establish classical business cycles, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate national activity. Regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. Concordance statistic measures show significant contemporaneous associations between the New Zealand cycle and 11 of the regional cycles. Over half the bi-regional co-movements are not significant. Geographical proximity influences co-movement between regions, as do unusually dry climatic conditions. Neither real national house price movements, nor net migration movements co-move significantly with regional cycle phases. For key regions, movements in New Zealand's terms of trade, milksolids' prices, dairy land prices and total rural land prices are significant. Rural business cycle activity has therefore remained a remarkably dominant factor. Copyright (c) 2007 the author(s). Journal compilation (c) 2007 RSAI.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2007.00119.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Papers in Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 86 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 167-191
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Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:86:y:2007:i:2:p:167-191

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  1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 2002. "'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 249-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Wells, Graeme & Evans, Lewis, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(172), pages 421-35, March.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
  8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Tim Hampton, 2001. "How much do import price shocks matter for consumer prices?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  14. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  15. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Tsoulfidis, L. & Dergiades, Th., 2006. "The Inflation-Capacity Utilization Conundrum: Evidence from the Canadian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "Estimating Capacity Utilization Using a SVAR Model: An Application to the US and Canadian Economies," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  3. Suzi Kerr & Joanna Hendy & Emma Brunton & Isabelle Sin, 2005. "The likely regional impacts of an agricultural emissions policy in New Zealand: Preliminary analysis," Working Papers 05_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Macroeconomics 0509020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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