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What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data

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  • Alberto Cavallo
  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov

Abstract

We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability to construct a direct high frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020–21 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in shortages in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition of shortages evolved from many temporary stockouts to mostly discontinued products, concentrated in fewer sectors. We show that product shortages have significant but transitory inflationary effects and that these effects can be associated with elevated costs of replenishing inventories.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Cavallo & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2021. "What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data," Staff Working Papers 21-52, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian C. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2023. "The impact of supply chain disruptions on business expectations during the pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Uzma Khan & Alexander DePaoli, 2024. "Brand loyalty in the face of stockouts," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 44-74, January.
    3. Higo, Masahiro & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2023. "Consumer price measurement under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan: Scanner data evidence for retailers in Tokyo," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen & Mix, Carter & Ruhl, Kim J., 2023. "The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Youngna Choi, 2022. "Economic Stimulus and Financial Instability: Recent Case of the U.S. Household," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-25, June.
    6. Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-12a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Hugh Montag & Daniel Villar, 2022. "Price-Setting During the Covid Era," Economic Working Papers 547, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    8. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Rachel Soloveichik, 2022. "Theoretical Inflation for Unavailable Products," BEA Working Papers 0193, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    10. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Galina Hale & John Leer & Fernanda Nechio, 2022. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," Working Paper Series 2023-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Sonan Memon, 2022. "Inflation in Pakistan: High-Frequency Estimation and Forecasting," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:12, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    14. Patrick W. McLaughlin & Alexander Stevens & Shawn Arita & Xiao Dong, 2023. "Stocking up and stocking out: Food retail stock‐outs, consumer demand, and prices during the COVID‐19 pandemic in 2020," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1618-1633, September.
    15. Melissa Maas & Gumataw Kifle Abebe & Christopher M. Hartt & Emmanuel K. Yiridoe, 2022. "Consumer Perceptions about the Value of Short Food Supply Chains during COVID-19: Atlantic Canada Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation and prices; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19);

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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