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The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022

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  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Carter B. Mix
  • Kim J. Ruhl

Abstract

We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020–2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.

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  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Carter B. Mix & Kim J. Ruhl, 2023. "The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022," NBER Working Papers 30849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30849
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain," Working Papers 243, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Grégory Levieuge & José Garcia-Revelo, 2024. "Revisiting 15 Years of Unusual Transatlantic Monetary Policies," Working Papers hal-04563708, HAL.
    5. ZHANG Hongyong & DOAN Thi Thanh Ha, 2023. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory during the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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