Due to lack of models that can feature both output- and input-inventories simultaneously, several well known puzzles pertaining to inventory fluctuations and the business cycle have not been well explained by dynamic optimization theory. By presenting a general equilibrium, multi-stage production model of inventories with separate decisions to order, use, and stock input materials and to produce, sell, and store finished output, this paper offers not only a model of input-output inventories but also a neoclassical perspective on the theory of aggregate demand. It shows that due to production/ delivery lags, firms opt to hold both output- and input-inventories so as to guard against demand uncertainty at all stages of production. As a result, not only is production more volatile than sales but also is inputordering more volatile than input-usages, giving rise to a chain-multiplier mechanism that propagates and amplifies demand shocks at downstream towards upstream via input-output linkages. This multiplier effect induced by precautionary inventory investment at each production stage can explain several long-standing puzzles of the business cycle documented in the inventory literature.
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Paper provided by Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics in its series Working Papers with number
03-13r.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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