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Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin

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Kenneth Kasa

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Abstract

This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (detrended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent GDP in all countries. However, the strained sector becomes more important and as the elasticity of unconstrained land demand increases. For example, if the efficient share of the constrained sector is 50 percent and the residual demand elasticity is 2.0, then costs range from 9 percent of GDP in Korea, where fluctuations are relatively transitory, to 11 percent of GDP in Japan, where land price fluctuations are the most persistent.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 17-28
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:17-28:n:3

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Keywords: Asia ; Pacific Area ; Financial crises - Asia;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  4. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jeffrey M. Lacker, 1998. "Collateralized debt as the optimal contract," Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hali Edison & Pongsak Luangaram & Marcus Miller, 1998. "Asset Bubbles, Domino Effects and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis," CSGR Working papers series 05/98, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
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  8. Chan Huh & Kenneth Kasa, 1997. "A dynamic model of export competition, policy coordination and simultaneous currency collapse," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  10. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gertler, Mark, 1992. "Financial Capacity and Output Fluctuations in an Economy with Multi-period Financial Relationships," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(3), pages 455-72, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Soft Landings (February 2000), with Martin Schneider," UCLA Economics Online Papers 241, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Agliari, A. & Assenza, T. & Delli Gatti, D. & Santoro, E., 2007. ""Credit Cycle" in an OLG Economy with Money and Bequest," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2006. "Amplifying Business Cycles through Credit Constraints," MPRA Paper 1808, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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