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Asset bubbles, domino effects and 'lifeboats': elements of the East Asian crisis

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Author Info
Hali J. Edison
Pongsak Luangaram
Marcus Miller

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Abstract

Credit market imperfections have been blamed for the depth and persistence of the Great Depression in the USA. Could similar mechanisms have played a role in ending the East Asian miracle? After a brief account of the nature of the recent crises, we use a model of highly levered credit-constrained firms due to Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to explore this question. As applied to land-holding property companies, it predicts greatly amplified responses to financial shocks--like the ending of the land price bubble or the fall of the exchange rate. The initial fall in asset values is followed by the ‘knock-on’ effects of the scramble for liquidity as companies sell land to satisfy their collateral requirements--causing land prices to fall further. This could lead to financial collapse where--like falling dominoes--prudent firms are brought down by imprudent firms. ; Key to avoiding collapse is the nature of financial stabilisation policy; in a crisis, temporary financing can prevent illiquidity becoming insolvency and launching ‘lifeboats’ can do the same. But the vulnerability of financial systems like those in East Asia to short-term foreign currency exposure suggests that preventive measures are also required.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 606.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:606

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Keywords: Financial crises - Asia ; Financial markets ; Asia;

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  1. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2007. "Net Worth, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy: The Effects of a Devaluation in a Financially Fragile Environment," NBER Working Papers 13244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1999. "Financial Contagion," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2092, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Haizhou Huang & Chenggang Xu, 2001. "Financial Institutions, Contagious Risks, and Financial Crises," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 444, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Fricciones crediticias y 'paradas repentinas' en pequeñas economías abiertas: un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico para crisis en mercados emergentes," RES Working Papers 4308, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Banking, financial integration, and international crises : an overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 100, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2002. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the "Greenspan Put"," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C171-C186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Seppo Honkapohja & Erkki Koskela, 2002. "The Economic Crisis of the 1990s in Finland," Discussion Papers 683, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "A Theory of the Onset of Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Raimundo Soto., . "Asset prices in Chile: facts and fads," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv115, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reuven Glick, 1998. "Thoughts on the origins of the Asia crisis: impulses and propagation mechanisms," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert Dekle & Kenneth Kletzer, . "Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia," IMF Working Papers 01/63, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. John Quigley, 2006. "Real Estate and the Asian Crisis," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series 1011, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Kenneth Kasa, 1998. "Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-28. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul & Zhang, Lei, 2001. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: The Idea of a 'Greenspan Put'," CEPR Discussion Papers 3041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Jenny Corbett & David Vines, 1998. "The Asian Crisis: Competing Explanations," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-12, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School. [Downloadable!]
  16. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," RES Working Papers 4307, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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