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Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises

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Author Info
Martin Schneider
Aaron Tornell

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Abstract

Several recent twin' currency and banking crises were preceded by lending booms during which the banking system financed rapid growth of the nontradable (N) sector by borrowing in foreign currency. They were followed by recessions during which a sharp decline in credit especially hurt the N-sector. This paper presents a model that accounts for these stylized facts. A crucial element is that we model a banking system that is simultaneously subject to two distortions typical of international credit markets: bailout guarantees and the imperfect enforceability of contracts. The interaction of these distortions produces unusually fast N-sector growth, together with a real appreciation, during the boom. However, it is also responsible for self-fulfilling twin crises, which have persistent adverse effects on N-sector output.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8060.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8060

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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  1. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," Working Papers 99.01 update, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. McKinnon, Ronald I. & Pill, Huw, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1267-1282, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," Working Papers 98004, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and the Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 663-91, August.
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  8. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1993. " Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1629-58, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kenneth Kasa, 1998. "Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-28. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2000. "On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1999. "Emerging Markets Crisis - An Asset Markets Perspective," IMF Working Papers 99/129, International Monetary Fund.
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  13. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  14. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 147-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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