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Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Estimations and consequences for economic policy

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  • Jürgen Kromphardt

    (Technical University, Berlin)

  • Camille Logeay

    (University of Applied Sciences HTW Berlin)

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the long-term Phillips curve is downward sloping and has become flatter in the last 10 to 15 years. Controlling for the most important other factors influencing the inflation rate, we estimate cointegrations and test whether a "break" in the Phillips curve can be detected. We restrict our study to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK and the USA. The results vary considerably between the countries, but all exhibit a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve and show the presumed "break". First we explain the results by changes in the wage or price setting circumstance. Then we critically discuss explanations based on the time-varying NAIRU and put against them explanations based on aggregate demand and hysteresis. In the conclusion, some consequences for economic policy are indicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Kromphardt & Camille Logeay, 2011. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Estimations and consequences for economic policy," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 43-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:8:y:2011:i:1:p43-67
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; hysteresis; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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