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Neues von der NAIRU?

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Author Info
Franz, Wolfgang
Abstract

Der Beitrag enthält eine Neuschätzung der inflationsstabilen Arbeitslosenquote (NAIRU) für Westdeutschland 1980 bis 1998. Nach einer Darstellung des konzeptionellen Rahmens der NAIRU einschließlich verschiedener Varianten, welche beispielsweise exogenen Schocks und dem Hysterese-Phänomen Rechnung tragen, erfolgt eine Diskussion verschiedener methodischer Probleme. Erstmalig werden für Westdeutschland dann eine zeitvariable NAIRU mit Hilfe des Kalman-Verfahrens sowie dazugehörige Konfidenzbänder unter Verwendung der residualbasierten Bootstrap-Methode geschätzt. Demnach liegt die westdeutsche NAIRU Ende des Jahres 1998 im Intervall zwischen 7.9 und 8.5 v.H. Zahlreiche methodische Vorbehalte sprechen indes dafür, diese und andere NAIRU Schätzungen mit Vorsicht zu interpretieren.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 00-41.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5324

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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    Other versions:
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  12. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Flaig, Gebhard & Ploetscher, Claudia, 2000. "Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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