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Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation

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Jordi Galí
Mark Gertler

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Abstract

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13542.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13542

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Acocella Nicola & Tirelli Patrizio, 2008. "Trend inflation as a workers disciplining device in a general equilibrium model," wp.comunite 0043, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ignacio Lozano, 2008. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005127, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roman Horváth & Marek Rusnák, 2008. "How Important Are Foreign Shocks in Small Open Economy? The Case of Slovakia," Working Papers IES 2008/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2008. "Globalization and monetary policy: an introduction," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 11, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2008. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ignacio Lozano, . "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 537, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2009. "Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons," MPRA Paper 12650, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  12. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Is the monetary policy rule responsive to exchange rate changes? The case of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 123-132, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mirko Abbritti & Andrea Boitani & Mirella Damiani, 2008. "Labour market imperfections, "divine coincidence" and the volatility of employment and inflation," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0078, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE). [Downloadable!]
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