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Canaries and vultures: A quantitative history of monetary mismanagement in Brazil

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Author Info
Albuquerque, Pedro H.
Gouvea, Solange

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Abstract

During the last two decades of the twentieth century, Brazil went through a sequence of failed stabilization plans that tried to cope with an enduring hyperinflation. This paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies during those episodes. Consistency between money supply and expected conditional money demand growth rates is considered for each plan. It is shown that unsuccessful programs were marked by excessive liquidity. The results not only suggest that monetary mismanagement led to the failure of the plans, but also that the excessive liquidity could have been predicted.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 479-495
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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:3:p:479-495

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Money demand Money supply Monetary policy Inflation Stabilization Brazil;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Garcia, Marcio G. P., 1996. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: The case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-159, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  6. Mark P. Taylor & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Testing for Credibility Effects," IMF Working Papers 91/110, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Cardoso, Eliana A & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Brazil's Tropical Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 288-92, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  9. Amann, Edmund & Baer, Werner, 2003. "Anchors Away: The Cost and Benefits of Brazil's Devaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1033-1046, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  11. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Maria Luiza Falcão Silva & Joaquim Pionto de Andrade, 1996. "Brazil's new currency: origin, development and perspectives of the Real," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 50(4), April.
  15. Merette, Marcel, 2000. "Post-Mortem of a Stabilization Plan: The Collor Plan in Brazil," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 417-452, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pereira, Luiz Bresser, 1987. "Inertial inflation and the Cruzado plan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1035-1044, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Pedro Albuquerque, 2006. "BAD taxation: Disintermediation and illiquidity in a bank account debits tax model," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 601-624, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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