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The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Author Info
Richard H. Clarida (Columbia University and National Bureau of Economic Research)
Lucio Sarno (University of Warwick and Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Mark P. Taylor (University of Warwick and Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Giorgio Valente (Chinese University of Hong Kong)

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Abstract

We examine the term structure of interest rates for the United States, Germany, and Japan over the period 1982–2000, using a nonlinear multivariate vector equilibrium correction-modeling framework that allows for asymmetric adjustment and regime shifts. The model has a very general underlying theoretical rationale that allows for time-varying term premia and other short-run deviations from the expectations model of the term structure. The empirical models fit well, display regime switches closely correlated with key monetary policy variables, and have good forecasting properties.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 79 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 1193-1224
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:3:p:1193-1224

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value," Working Papers 2006-061, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sofiane Amri, 2008. "Analysing the forward premium anomaly using a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression model," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(26), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dieter Nautz & Christian J. Offermanns, 2007. "The dynamic relationship between the euro overnight rate, the ECB's policy rate and the term spread," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 287-300. [Downloadable!]
  6. Offermanns, Christian J. & Nautz, Dieter, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between the Euro overnight rate, the ECB´s policy rate and the term spread," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Antonio F. Galvao, Jr. & Gabriel V. Montes-Rojas & Jose Olmo, 2009. "Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Models," City University Economics Discussion Papers 09/05, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 5259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jardet, C. & Le Fol, G., 2007. "Euro money market interest rates dynamics and volatility: How they respond to recent changes in the operational framework," Documents de Travail 167, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  10. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Benjamin M. Tabak?, 2007. "Characterizing The Brazilian Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Leon, Hyginus & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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