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A DSGE Model with Partial Euroization: The Case of the Macedonian Economy

Author

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  • Mihai Copaciu

    (National Bank of Romania)

  • Joana Madjoska

    (National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia)

  • Mite Miteski

    (National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia)

Abstract

This paper describes the theoretical structure and estimation results for a DSGE model for the Macedonian economy. Having as benchmark the model of Copaciu et al. (2015), modified to allow for a fixed exchange rate, we are able to match relatively well the volatility observed in the data. Given the monetary policy regime in place, the debt deflation channel is more important relative to the financial accelerator one when compared to the flexible exchange rate case. The lack of balance sheet effects results in no significant differences in terms of net worth evolution across the two types of entrepreneurs when impulse response functions are evaluated. However, the shocks related to the financial sector appear to be especially important for investment, for the domestic interest rate and interest rate spreads, illustrating the relevance of including financial frictions in the model. With the exchange rate not acting as a shock absorber, the external shocks are more relevant for the CPI inflation and the domestic interest rate. The drop in GDP associated with the pandemic mainly reflects the negative innovations to the consumption preference shock and to the permanent technology shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihai Copaciu & Joana Madjoska & Mite Miteski, 2021. "A DSGE Model with Partial Euroization: The Case of the Macedonian Economy," Economy, Business & Development: An International Journal, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, vol. 2(2), pages 57-118, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:aoh:journl:v:2:y:2021:i:2:p:57-118
    DOI: 10.47063/ebd.00006
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    Cited by:

    1. Mite Miteski & Magdalena Petrovska & Рртан Сулејмани, 2023. "Measuring the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy: a multi-model approach," Working Papers 2023-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; financial frictions; partial euroization; small open economy; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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