IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/reowae/324052.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Short-term Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalisation on Food Import Prices: The Regression Discontinuity in Time Employed for Russian Food Markets in 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Loginova, Daria

Abstract

This study summarises the main agricultural policies in Russia during 2014 and uses a sharp regression discontinuity design over time and data from the International Trade Centre to estimate the short-term effects of exchange rate liberalisation in November 2014 on import prices in Russian food markets. The sharp regression discontinuity design over time allowed an expost analysis of the short-term causal effects of the intervention on food import prices and distinguishing the effect of exchange rate liberalisation between product groups and from other interventions without using data from control regions, products and suppliers. Significant upward shifts in import prices were found for pig products, fish and cheese.

Suggested Citation

  • Loginova, Daria, 2022. "Assessing the Short-term Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalisation on Food Import Prices: The Regression Discontinuity in Time Employed for Russian Food Markets in 2014," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 3(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:reowae:324052
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.324052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/324052/files/RWAE-0303-612.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.324052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    2. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    3. N. Shagaida & V. Uzun., 2016. "Food embargo and choice of priorities," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    5. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.
    6. Sinyakov, A. & Chernyadyev, D. & Sapova, A., 2019. "Estimating the Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect on Producer Prices of Final Products Based on Micro-Data of Russian Companies," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 128-157.
    7. Balcombe, Kelvin, 2009. "The Nature and Determinants of Volatility in Agricultural Prices," MPRA Paper 24819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Christopher B. Barrett, 1999. "The effects of real exchange rate depreciation on stochastic producer prices in low‐income agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 20(3), pages 215-230, May.
    9. Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2020. "Russian food embargo and the lost trade [Nonparametric counterfactual predictions in neoclassical models of international trade]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 684-718.
    10. Matias Cattaneo & Sebastian Calonico & Rocio Titiunik, 2015. "Robust Inference in Regression-Discontinuity Designs," 2015 Stata Conference 16, Stata Users Group.
    11. Guzman, Martin & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Real exchange rate policies for economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 51-62.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Korea‐U.S. commodity trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 594-629, December.
    13. Loginova D. & Uzun Vasily, 2016. "Russian food embargo: minor losses in western countries," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 9, pages 32-37, September.
    14. Wang, Yiwei & Wang, Ke & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 58-65.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    16. Banse, Martin & Duric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Laquai, Verena, 2019. "From the Russian food import ban to free trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok - will farmers benefit?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 20-31.
    17. Kadochnikov, Pavel A. (Кадочников, Павел А.) & Chentsov, Alexander M. (Ченцов, Александр М.) & Knobel, Alexander Yu. (Кнобель, Александр Ю.), 2019. "Assessment of Import Substitution Due to the Trade Embargo in Russia, 2014–2016 [Оценка Масштабов Импортозамещения В России В 2014–2016 Годах]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-33, February.
    18. Burakov, D., 2016. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    19. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    20. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    21. Svetlana Fedoseeva & Roland Herrmann, 2019. "The price of sanctions: An empirical analysis of German export losses due to the Russian agricultural ban," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 67(4), pages 417-431, December.
    22. Daria Loginova & Marco Portmann & Martin Huber, 2021. "Assessing the Effects of Seasonal Tariff‐rate Quotas on Vegetable Prices in Switzerland," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 607-627, June.
    23. Volchkova, N. & Kuznetsova, P., 2019. "How Much Do Counter-Sanctions Cost: Well-Being Analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 173-183.
    24. Kim, Hyeyoung & Ward, Ronald W., 2013. "Price transmission across the U.S. food distribution system," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 226-236.
    25. A. C. Arize & S. S. Shwiff, 1998. "Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 Countries? Evidence from cointegration models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1269-1276.
    26. N. Shagaida & V. Uzun., 2015. "Food Security: Problems of Assessing," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Daria Loginova & Stefan Mann, 2022. "Institutional contributions to agricultural producer price stability," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
    4. Mikhail Krivko & Luboš Smutka, 2021. "Agricultural and Foodstuff Trade between EU28 and Russia: (Non)Uniformity of the Russian Import Ban Impact Distribution," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Nils Herger, 2012. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 381-407, September.
    6. Nils Herger, 2015. "Market Entries and Exits and the Nonlinear Behaviour of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 313-332, April.
    7. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and exchange rate : a firm-level investigation," Working Papers hal-00973044, HAL.
    8. Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
    9. Sebastian Galiani & Patrick J. McEwan & Brian Quistorff, 2017. "External and Internal Validity of a Geographic Quasi-Experiment Embedded in a Cluster-Randomized Experiment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Regression Discontinuity Designs, volume 38, pages 195-236, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "Regional Patterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geography vs. Currencies," NBER Working Papers 5395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
    12. Ariel Burstein, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Ariel Burstein on International Trade and Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), November.
    13. Yang He & Otávio Bartalotti, 2020. "Wild bootstrap for fuzzy regression discontinuity designs: obtaining robust bias-corrected confidence intervals [Using Maimonides’ rule to estimate the effect of class size on scholastic achievemen," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 211-231.
    14. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    15. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2021. "Investigating Alternative Poultry Trade Policies in the Context of African Countries: Evidence from Ghana," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    17. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ayres, Joao & Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Maria Guadalupe, 2007. "Product Market Competition, Returns to Skill, and Wage Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(3), pages 439-474.
    20. Charles Engel & John Rogers, 1998. "Regional Patterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geography versus Currencies," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 153-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production Economics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:reowae:324052. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nassg.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.