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Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development

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Author Info
Philippe Aghion (Harvard University & NBERute & CEPR)
Philippe Baccheta (Study Center Gerzensee, Swiss Finance Institute & CEPR)
Romain Ranciere (IMF Research Department)
Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University & NBER)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on the long-term rate of productivity growth, but the e¤ect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for financially advanced countries, there is no significant effect. Our empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000; our results appear robust to time window, alternative measures of ?nancial development and exchange rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 06-16.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0616

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Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate regime financial development growth

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O42 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  43. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," NBER Working Papers 12363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Alberto Cavallo, 2008. "¿Son Buenas las Crisis para el Crecimiento a Largo Plazo? El Papel de las Instituciones Políticas," RES Working Papers 4590, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers WP13_2007_07, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2008. "Cost of Holding Excess Reserves: The Indian Experience," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 206, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  6. Philipp Harms & Marco Kretschmann, 2007. "Words, deeds, and outcomes: A survey on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 07.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/36, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bersch, Julia & Klüh, Ulrich H., 2007. "When countries do not do what they say: Systematic discrepancies between exchange rate regime announcements and de facto policies," Discussion Papers in Economics 2072, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Kaltani, Linda & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2007. "Post-conflict aid, real exchange rate adjustment, and catch-up growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4187, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hoffmann, Mathias & Tillmann, Peter, 2008. "Integration of financial markets and national price levels: the role of exchange rate volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Alberto Cavallo, 2008. "Are Crises Good for Long-Term Growth? The Role of Political Institutions," RES Working Papers 4589, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2006. "Regional Monetary Integration among Developing Countries: New Opportunities for Macroeconomic Stability beyond the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas?," GIGA Working Paper Series 38, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies. [Downloadable!]
  14. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim A. Elbadawi., 2007. "Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 324, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  15. Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Large Hoarding of International Reserves and the Emerging Global Economic Architecture," NBER Working Papers 13277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2006. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp06-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "International Reserves Management and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 12734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Ricardo J. Caballero & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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