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Comparing predictions and outcomes : Theory and application to income changes

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Cited by:

  1. Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
  2. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2006. "Testing consumers' asymmetric reaction to wealth changes," CPB Discussion Paper 53, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  4. Montizaan, R.M. & de Grip, A. & Fouarge, D., 2015. "Training access, reciprocity, and expected retirement age," Research Memorandum 005, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  5. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
  6. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  7. Frijters, Paul & de New, John & Shields, Michael A., 2002. "Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification," IZA Discussion Papers 498, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  8. R Alessie & A Kapteyn, 2001. "New data for understanding saving," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, Spring.
  9. Hoderlein, Stefan & Winter, Joachim, 2010. "Structural measurement errors in nonseparable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 432-440, August.
  10. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
  11. Sarah Brown & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer & Karl Taylor, 2024. "Financial Expectations and Household Consumption: Does Middle‐Inflation Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 741-768, June.
  12. Baltagi, Badi H., 2013. "Panel Data Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 995-1024, Elsevier.
  13. Luc Bissonnette & Arthur van Soest, 2012. "The future of retirement and the pension system: How the public’s expectations vary over time and across socio-economic groups," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, December.
  14. Frijters, Paul & Liu, Amy Y.C. & Meng, Xin, 2012. "Are optimistic expectations keeping the Chinese happy?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 159-171.
  15. Lena Boneva & James Cloyne & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2020. "Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(627), pages 555-586.
  16. Chetan Dave, 2011. "Are Investment Expectations Rational, Adaptive Or Regressive?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 212-225, January.
  17. Paul Frijters & Harry Greenwell & John P. Haisken-DeNew & Michael A. Shields, 2009. "How well do individuals predict their future life satisfaction? Evidence from panel data following a nationwide exogenous shock," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1326-1346, November.
  18. Maurizio Bovi, 2006. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," ISAE Working Papers 66, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  19. Kröger, Sabine & Pierrot, Thibaud, 2019. "What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2019-212, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
  20. Hyslop, Dean R & Imbens, Guido W, 2001. "Bias from Classical and Other Forms of Measurement Error," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 475-481, October.
  21. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2004. "On Expectations, Realizations and Partial Retirement," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-052/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  22. Paul Frijters & John P. Haisken-DeNew & Michael Shields, 2003. "How Well Do Individuals Predict Their Future Life Satisfaction? Rationality and Learning Following a Nationwide Exogenous Shock," CEPR Discussion Papers 468, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  23. Arns, Jürgen & Bhattacharya, Kaushik, 2005. "Modelling Aggregate Consumption Growth with Time-Varying Parameters," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 15/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
  24. Boneva, Lena & Cloyne, James & Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2018. "Firms' Expectations of New Orders, Employment, Costs and Prices: Evidence from Micro Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 12722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Thomas F Crossley & Yifan Gong & Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2024. "Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-College Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2700-2747.
  26. Lucia Modugno, 2024. "Evaluating Qualitative Expectational Data on Investments from Business Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 59-88, August.
  27. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2006. "Testing consumers' asymmetric reaction to wealth changes," CPB Discussion Paper 53.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  29. Ramos, Xavier & Schluter, Christian, 2006. "Subjective Income Expectations and Income Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1950, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  30. Yu, Ge, 2003. "Comparing Expectations and Outcomes: Application to UK Data," MPRA Paper 502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  31. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Papers 9926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2000. "Expected Versus Realized Income Changes : A Test of the Rational Expectation Hypothesis," Discussion Paper 2000-105, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  33. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
  34. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2010. "Testing Consumers' Asymmetric Perception Of Changes In Household Financial Situation," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(2), pages 327-350, June.
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