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Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts
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- Joshua Aaron Becker & Douglas Guilbeault & Edward Bishop Smith, 2022. "The Crowd Classification Problem: Social Dynamics of Binary-Choice Accuracy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3949-3965, May.
- Jos Jansen & Jasper de Winter, 2016. "Improving model-based near-term GDP forecasts by subjective forecasts: A real-time exercise for the G7 countries," DNB Working Papers 507, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024.
"Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world,"
Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 8, pages 187-217,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
- Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021.
"Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
- Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
- Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2018. "Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms," CAMA Working Papers 2018-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Dušan Marković & Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Estimation of the most influential science and technology factors for economic growth forecasting by soft computing technique," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1133-1146, May.
- Jan Schulz & Kerstin Hötte & Daniel M. Mayerhoffer, 2024. "Pluralist economics in an era of polycrisis," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 201-218, September.
- Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
- Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2020.
"Nowcasting Real Gdp For Saudi Arabia,"
WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS
202018, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
- Alkhareif, Ryadh M. & Barnett, William A., 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 104278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Etienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2017.
"A policymaker’s guide to a Euro area stabilization fund,"
Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 11-30, April.
- Etienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2016. "A policymaker's guide to a Euro area stabilization fund," Post-Print hal-01526022, HAL.
- Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021.
"Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
- Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Goran Maksimović & Srđan Jović & David Jovović & Marina Jovović, 2019. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analyses of Economic Development Based on Different Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1103-1109, March.
- Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2022. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 333-345, April.
- Feuerriegel, Stefan & Gordon, Julius, 2019. "News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: A semantic path model for interpretable predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 162-175.
- Petra Karanikić & Igor Mladenović & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović & Meysam Alizamir, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Prediction of economic growth by extreme learning approach based on science and technology transfer," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1395-1401, May.
- Joshua Becker & Abdullah Almaatouq & EmH{o}ke-'Agnes Horv'at, 2020. "Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion," Papers 2009.07202, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
- Stavros Degiannakis, 2023.
"The D-model for GDP nowcasting,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-33, December.
- Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
- Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024.
"Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Heinisch, Katja, 2024. "Step by step - A quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Joshua Becker & Douglas Guilbeault & Ned Smith, 2021. "The Crowd Classification Problem: Social Dynamics of Binary Choice Accuracy," Papers 2104.11300, arXiv.org.
- Dorinth van Dijk & Jasper de Winter, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP using tone-adjusted time varying news topics: Evidence from the financial press," Working Papers 766, DNB.
- Marković, Dušan & Petković, Dalibor & Nikolić, Vlastimir & Milovančević, Miloš & Petković, Biljana, 2017. "Soft computing prediction of economic growth based in science and technology factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 217-220.
- Poghosyan, Karen & Poghosyan, Ruben, 2021.
"On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
- Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2021. "On the Applicability of Dynamic Factor Models for Forecasting Real GDP Growth in Armenia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 52-79, June.
- Hauber, Philipp, 2018. "Zur Kurzfristprognose mit Faktormodellen und Prognoseanpassungen," Kiel Insight 2018.5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
- Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020.
"Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries,"
Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 197-220, May.
- Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Nowcasting real GDP growth with business tendency surveys data: A cross country analysis," KIER Working Papers 1002, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
- Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2017. "Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations," European Economy - Discussion Papers 070, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
- Đokić, Aleksandar & Jović, Srđan, 2017. "Evaluation of agriculture and industry effect on economic health by ANFIS approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 396-399.
- Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analyzing of innovations influence on economic growth by fuzzy system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1297-1304, May.
- Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021.
"Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
- Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Maksimović, Goran & Jović, Srđan & Jovanović, Radomir, 2017. "Economic growth rate management by soft computing approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 520-524.
- Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
- Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.