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Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  2. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  3. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Hartigan, Luke, 2016. "Is the Assumption of Linearity in Factor Models too Strong in Practice?," Working Papers 2072/261531, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
  5. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  6. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2016. "Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-80.
  7. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
  8. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
  9. Jolejole-Foreman, Maria Christina & Mallory, Mindy L. & Baylis, Katherine R., 2013. "Impact of Wheat and Rice Export Ban on Indian Market Integration," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150595, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  11. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  12. Ana Beatriz Galvao & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/22, European University Institute.
  13. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non-)causality in a time-varying coefficient VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 293-303.
  14. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
  15. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
  16. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  17. Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics," CREATES Research Papers 2017-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  18. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks: A new-Keynesian interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 277-296.
  19. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  20. Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
  21. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," NCER Working Paper Series 75, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  22. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
  23. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  24. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
  25. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
  26. Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh & Kostas Mouratidis, 2009. "Fiscal Readjustments In The United States: A Nonlinear Time‐Series Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 34-54, January.
  27. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2015. "Financial frictions and global spillovers," Discussion Papers 04/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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