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Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change

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Cited by:

  1. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  2. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
  3. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  4. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations," Discussion Papers 10-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  6. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
  7. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  9. Kristensen Johannes Tang, 2014. "Factor-based forecasting in the presence of outliers: Are factors better selected and estimated by the median than by the mean?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 309-338, May.
  10. McNown, Robert & Seip, Knut Lehre, 2011. "Periods and structural breaks in US economic history 1959-2007," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 169-182, March.
  11. Han, Xu & Inoue, Atsushi, 2015. "Tests For Parameter Instability In Dynamic Factor Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 1117-1152, October.
  12. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Papers 1805.03807, arXiv.org.
  13. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan J. & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2014. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 30-48.
  14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-023 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Baltagi, Badi H. & Kao, Chihwa & Wang, Fa, 2017. "Identification and estimation of a large factor model with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 87-100.
  16. Alessandro Casini, 2018. "Tests for Forecast Instability and Forecast Failure under a Continuous Record Asymptotic Framework," Papers 1803.10883, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
  17. Demetrescu, Matei & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-99.
  18. González-Rivera, Gloria & Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz, Esther, 2019. "Growth in stress," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 948-966.
  19. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Testing for structural changes in large dimensional factor models via discrete Fourier transform," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 302-331.
  20. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
  21. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Forecasting Consumption: the Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1254-1275, November.
  22. Lopez-Buenache, German, 2019. "The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 221-233.
  23. Nivín, Rafael & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Estimación de un Índice de Condiciones Financieras para el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 37, pages 49-64.
  24. repec:cte:wsrepe:23974 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
  26. Boniface Yemba & Yi Duan & Nabaneeta Biswas, 2023. "Government spending news and stock price index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1816-1841.
  27. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
  28. Olga Bondarenko, 2020. "The Missing “Cycle” Part and Other Thoughts on the Global Financial Cycle," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 250, pages 15-32.
  29. Yemba, Boniface P. & Otunuga, Olusegun Michael & Tang, Biyan & Biswas, Nabaneeta, 2023. "Nowcasting of the Short-run Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate with Economic Fundamentals and Time-varying Parameters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  30. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
  31. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
  32. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2016. "Estimation of heterogeneous panels with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 176-195.
  33. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2017. "How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2017/218, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Bai, Jushan & Han, Xu & Shi, Yutang, 2020. "Estimation and inference of change points in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 66-100.
  35. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  36. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
  37. Bystrov, Victor & di Salvatore, Antonietta, 2013. "Martingale approximation of eigenvalues for common factor representation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 233-237.
  38. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  39. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, February.
  40. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Testing for structural stability of factor augmented forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 100-118.
  41. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
  42. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  43. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
  44. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  45. MeiChi Huang, 2019. "A Nationwide or Localized Housing Crisis? Evidence from Structural Instability in US Housing Price and Volume Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1547-1563, April.
  46. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
  47. Bueno, José Luis Cendejas & Santos, Sonia de Lucas & Rodríguez, Ma Jesús Delgado & Ayuso, Inmaculada Álvarez, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in factor loadings: An application to international business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 259-263.
  48. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
  49. Pang, Iris Ai Jao, 2010. "Forecasting Hong Kong economy using factor augmented vector autoregression," MPRA Paper 32495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
  51. Giovanni Urga & Fa Wang, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," Papers 2205.12126, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
  52. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
  53. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
  54. Charles Rahal, 2015. "Housing Market Forecasting with Factor Combinations," Discussion Papers 15-05r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  55. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_012 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Yoshiki Nakajima & Naoya Sueishi, 2022. "Forecasting the Japanese macroeconomy using high-dimensional data," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 299-324, April.
  57. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2024. "International monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets: dynamic and spillover effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(16), pages 1855-1875, November.
  58. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
  59. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
  60. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2024. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
  61. Davor Kunovac, 2007. "Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 371-393.
  62. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  63. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201504131155 is not listed on IDEAS
  64. Ma, Chenchen & Tu, Yundong, 2023. "Group fused Lasso for large factor models with multiple structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 132-154.
  65. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201504131155 is not listed on IDEAS
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