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Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Forward guidance and the private forecast disagreement – case of Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 50(4), pages 411-428.
  3. Hamid Baghestani & Barry Poulson, 2012. "Federal Reserve forecasts of nonfarm payroll employment across different political regimes," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(3), pages 280-289, July.
  4. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2006. "The Taylor rule and the appointment cycle of the chairperson of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 55-66.
  5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," NBP Working Papers 74, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  7. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Weiss, Matthew A., 2011. "Forecast errors before and during the Great Moderation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 278-289, July.
  8. Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110.
  9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
  11. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  12. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
  13. Capistrán, Carlos, 2008. "Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
  14. Ding, Sitong, 2018. "Bounded rationality in rules of price adjustment and the Phillips Curve," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102080, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  15. Spencer D. Krane, 2011. "Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 184-211, January.
  16. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
  18. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
  19. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  20. Hamid Baghestani, 2014. "On the loss structure of federal reserve forecasts of output growth," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 518-527, July.
  21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
  23. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  25. Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
  26. José Daniel Aromí, 2021. "Large Current Account Deficits and Neglected Vulnerabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 597-623, December.
  27. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
  28. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
  29. Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
  30. Jones, Adam T. & Ogden, Richard E., 2017. "A day late and a dollar short: The effect of policy uncertainty on fed forecast errors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 112-122.
  31. Hamid Baghestani, 2009. "A Comparison of U.S. Housing Starts Forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2525-2530.
  32. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2013. "Banks, Asset Management or Consultancies' Inflation Forecasts: is there a better forecaster out there?," Working Papers Series 310, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  33. Hamid Baghestani & Cassia Marchon, 2015. "On the accuracy of private forecasts of inflation and growth in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 370-381, April.
  34. Baghestani, Hamid, 2011. "Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 290-305, July.
  35. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
  36. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. William T. Gavin & Geetanjali Pande, 2008. "FOMC consensus forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 149-164.
  38. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  39. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
  40. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Baghestani, Hamid & AbuAl-Foul, Bassam M., 2017. "Comparing Federal Reserve, Blue Chip, and time series forecasts of US output growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 47-56.
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