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Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise

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  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2018. "Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 163-180.
  3. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
  4. Jain, Kriti & Bearden, J. Neil & Filipowicz, Allan, 2013. "Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 69-79.
  5. Lambert, Jérôme & Bessière, Véronique & N’Goala, Gilles, 2012. "Does expertise influence the impact of overconfidence on judgment, valuation and investment decision?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1115-1128.
  6. N/A, 1995. "The Covariance Decomposition of the Probability Score and Its Use in Evaluating Prognostic Estimates," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 15(2), pages 120-131, June.
  7. Enis, Charles R., 1995. "Expert-novive judgments and new cue sets: Process versus outcome," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 641-662, December.
  8. Wilkie, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C., 1996. "An application of probability judgement accuracy measures to currency forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-40, March.
  9. Onkal, Dilek & Yates, J. Frank & Simga-Mugan, Can & Oztin, Sule, 2003. "Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 169-185, July.
  10. Olivier Brandouy & Pascal Barneto & Lawrence Leger, 2003. "Asymmetric information, imitative behaviour and communication: price formation in an experimental asset market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 393-419.
  11. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:5:p:381-391 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2020. "Using judgment to select and adjust forecasts from statistical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 882-895.
  13. Laurent Vilanova & Nadège Marchand & Walid Hichri, 2015. "Financing and advising with (over)confident entrepreneurs: an experimental investigation," Working Papers halshs-01154514, HAL.
  14. Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C., 1997. "Currency forecasting: an investigation of extrapolative judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-526, December.
  15. Erik Angner, 2006. "Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24.
  16. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
  17. Peter Ayton & Dilek Onkal & Lisa McReynolds, 2011. "Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(5), pages 381-391, July.
  18. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
  19. Zeyang Chen & Yu-Jane Liu & Juanjuan Meng & Zeng Wang, 2023. "What’s in a Face? An Experiment on Facial Information and Loan-Approval Decision," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2263-2283, April.
  20. Theocharis, Zoe & Harvey, Nigel, 2019. "When does more mean worse? Accuracy of judgmental forecasting is nonlinearly related to length of data series," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 10-19.
  21. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1995. "Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 307-319, June.
  22. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.
  23. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
  24. Spassova, Gerri & Palmeira, Mauricio & Andrade, Eduardo B., 2018. "A ratings pattern heuristic in judgments of expertise: When being right Looks wrong," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 26-47.
  25. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
  26. Lawrence, Michael & Sim, William, 1999. "Prototyping a financial DSS," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 445-450, August.
  27. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  28. Whitecotton, Stacey M. & Sanders, D. Elaine & Norris, Kathleen B., 1998. "Improving Predictive Accuracy with a Combination of Human Intuition and Mechanical Decision Aids," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 325-348, December.
  29. Ogbeide, Henry & Thomson, Mary Elizabeth & Gonul, Mustafa Sinan & Pollock, Andrew Castairs & Bhowmick, Sanjay & Bello, Abdullahi Usman, 2023. "The anti-money laundering risk assessment: A probabilistic approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
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