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Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting

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Cited by:

  1. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
  2. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2004. "Purchasing power parity and the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1081-1107.
  3. Andreas Andersson & Par Osterholm, 2005. "Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data - the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 267-272.
  4. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  5. Jan Marc Berk & Job Swank, 2007. "Regional real exchange rates and Phillips curves in monetary unions - Evidence from the US and EMU," DNB Working Papers 147, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2001. "Long memory and nonlinear mean reversion in Japanese yen-based real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 115-132, February.
  7. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2011. "Mean-variance portfolio selection of cointegrated assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1369-1385, August.
  8. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  9. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
  10. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
  11. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  12. Francis Ahking, 2003. "Efficient unit root tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-12.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
  14. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
  15. Lorenzo Reus & Guillermo Alexander Sepúlveda-Hurtado, 2023. "Foreign exchange trading and management with the stochastic dual dynamic programming method," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-38, December.
  16. Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Chen, Ting-Fu, 2020. "Impact of volatility jumps in a mean-reverting model: Derivative pricing and empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  17. Engel, Charles & Hendrickson, Michael K. & Rogers, John H., 1997. "Intranational, Intracontinental, and Intraplanetary PPP," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 480-501, December.
  18. Chen, Natalie, 2004. "The behaviour of relative prices in the European Union: A sectoral analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1257-1286, December.
  19. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2011. "Real exchange rates and time-varying trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1157-1179, October.
  20. Curran, Michael & Velic, Adnan, 2019. "Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 35-56.
  21. Groen, J.J.J., 2000. "New multi-country evidence on purchasing power parity: multivariate unit root test results," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-09/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  22. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 2007. "Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: Evidence from panel data tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 240-251, May.
  23. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
  24. James R. Lothian & Cornelia McCarthy, 2001. "Real Exchange-Rate Behaviour under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 0107002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. K. Hassanain, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity And Cross‐Sectional Dependency," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 238-257, June.
  26. Rodolfo Helg & Massimiliano Serati, "undated". "Does the PPP need the UIP?," Working Papers 97, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  27. Lopez, Claude, 2008. "Evidence of purchasing power parity for the floating regime period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 156-164, February.
  28. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Testing the purchasing power parity in pooled systems of error correction models," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 45-62, January.
  29. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2005. "Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 77-91, January.
  30. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  31. Paul G. J. O'Connell & Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. ""The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall": How Price Differences Across U.S. Cities Are Arbitraged," NBER Working Papers 6089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Renu Kohli, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Stationarity in Managed Floats: Evidence from India," International Finance 0405011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2013. "Optimal investment for an insurer with cointegrated assets: CRRA utility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 52-64.
  34. Koedijk, Kees G. & Schotman, Peter C. & Van Dijk, Mathijs A., 1998. "The re-emergence of PPP in the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 51-61, February.
  35. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
  36. Paresh Narayan & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: New Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests for Seventeen European Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(34), pages 1-6.
  37. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2012. "Mean–variance asset–liability management: Cointegrated assets and insurance liability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(3), pages 785-793.
  38. Sideris, Dimitrios, 2006. "Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-154, April.
  39. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 489-506, August.
  40. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June.
  41. Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Productivity differentials, the relative price of non-tradables and real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-409.
  42. Flores, Renato & Jorion, Philippe & Preumont, Pierre-Yves & Szafarz, Ariane, 1999. "Multivariate unit root tests of the PPP hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 335-353, October.
  43. Spierdijk, Laura & Bikker, Jacob A. & van den Hoek, Pieter, 2012. "Mean reversion in international stock markets: An empirical analysis of the 20th century," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 228-249.
  44. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  45. Sebastian Sund & Lars H. Sendstad & Jacco J. J. Thijssen, 2022. "Kalman filter approach to real options with active learning," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 457-490, July.
  46. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
  47. Elliott, Graham & Pesavento, Elena, 2006. "On the Failure of Purchasing Power Parity for Bilateral Exchange Rates after 1973," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1405-1430, September.
  48. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajšek, 1999. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Staff Reports 80, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  49. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sager, Michael, 2009. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal," Working Paper Series 1046, European Central Bank.
  50. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 246-267, February.
  51. Peter Anker, 1999. "Pitfalls in panel tests of purchasing power parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 437-453, September.
  52. Axel Grossmann & Marc Simpson & Teofilo Ozuna, 2014. "Investigating the PPP hypothesis using constructed U.S. dollar equilibrium exchange rate misalignments over the post-bretton woods period," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 235-268, April.
  53. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1999. "Long-run purchasing power parity with short-run data: evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 751-768, October.
  54. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Rabhi, Ayoub, 2020. "Taux de change d’équilibre et compétitivité au Maroc : Estimation par le Modèle ARDL de cointégration [Equilibrium exchange rate and competitiveness in Morocco: Estimation by ARDL Cointegration Mod," MPRA Paper 98294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Sideris, Dimitris A. & Voumvaki, Fragiska K., 2005. "Testing long-run purchasing power parity under exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 959-981, October.
  57. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
  58. Densing, M., 2012. "Occupation times of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process: Functional PCA and evidence from electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 5818-5826.
  59. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2009:i:029 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Francis Ahking, 2010. "Non-parametric tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 439-456, October.
  61. Francis W. Ahking, 2002. "Is the Bayesian Approach Necessarily Better than the Classical Approach in Unit-Root Test?," Working papers 2002-18, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  62. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
  63. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "Equilibrium exchange rate determination and multiple structural changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 52-66.
  64. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and Switching Regimes," Working Papers 1999:4, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 08 Jun 2000.
  65. Rodolfo Helg & Massimiliano Serati, 2000. "The speed of adjustment to PPP: is there any puzzle?," LIUC Papers in Economics 74, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
  66. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Kaufkraftparitäten des Dollars und des Euro," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 73(8), pages 487-500, August.
  67. Tasadduq Imam & Kevin Tickle & Abdullahi Ahmed & William Guo, 2012. "Linear Relationship Between The Aud/Usd Exchange Rate And The Respective Stock Market Indices: A Computational Finance Perspective," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 19-42, January.
  68. Magnus Gustavsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 779-792, June.
  69. Enders, Walter & Falk, Barry, 1998. "Threshold-autoregressive, median-unbiased, and cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 171-186, June.
  70. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656.
  71. Lothian, James R., 1998. "Some new stylized facts of floating exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 29-39, February.
  72. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
  73. Papell, David H., 2006. "The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 447-467, March.
  74. Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Is there a permanent component in US real GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 137-142, February.
  75. Zhong, Yinhui & Bao, Qunfang & Li, Shenghong, 2015. "FX options pricing in logarithmic mean-reversion jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-13.
  76. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:30:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Koedijk, C.G. & Tims, B. & van Dijk, M.A., 2005. "Purchasing Power Parity and Heterogeneous Mean Reversion," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-085-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  78. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity in Selected African Countries - a Panel Data Approach," Working Papers in Economics 39, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  79. Kausik Chaudhuri & Jeffrey Sheen, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity Across States and Goods Within Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(250), pages 314-329, September.
  80. Fernando Fernandes & Rodrigo De Losso, Rogerio Oliveira, Angelo J D Soto, Pedro D Cavalcanti, Gabriel M S Campos, 2020. "Saving Markowitz: A Risk Parity approach based on the Cauchy Interlacing Theorem," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2020_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  81. Coe, Patrick J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2002. "Bounds tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 179-199, January.
  82. Mittal, Mandeep & Sarkar, Biswajit, 2023. "Stochastic behavior of exchange rate on an international supply chain under random energy price," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 232-250.
  83. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H. McCarthy, 2003. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior Under Floating and Fixed Regimes," International Finance 0311006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
  85. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 2005. "Real exchange rates and switching regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 121-138, February.
  86. Crescenzio Gallo & Michelangelo De Bonis & Pierpaolo Palazzo, 2012. "Computer applications in the context of financial speculation," Quaderni DSEMS 02-2012, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
  87. Cushman, David O. & Michael, Nils, 2011. "Nonlinear trends in real exchange rates: A panel unit root test approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1619-1637.
  88. Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 2004. "The European Union currencies and the US dollar: from post-Bretton-Woods to the Euro," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1109-1136.
  89. Siddique, Akhtar & Sweeney, Richard J., 1998. "Forecasting real exchange rates1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-70, February.
  90. Wong, Hoi Ying & Lo, Yu Wai, 2009. "Option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 179-187, August.
  91. Kul B. Luintel, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 161-185.
  92. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  93. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:34:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
  94. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2014. "Pricing foreign equity options with regime-switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 296-305.
  95. Papell, David H. & Theodoridis, Hristos, 1998. "Increasing evidence of purchasing power parity over the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 41-50, February.
  96. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
  97. Wali, Muammer & Chan, Felix & Manzur, Meher, 2017. "Nonlinear dependence in exchange rate returns: How do emerging Asian currencies compare with major currencies?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-72.
  98. Michael Bleaney, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Apparent Unit Roots: An Application to Exchange Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(225), pages 139-144, June.
  99. Carcano, G. & Falbo, P. & Stefani, S., 2005. "Speculative trading in mean reverting markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 132-144, May.
  100. Choi, Chi-Young, 2004. "Searching for evidence of long-run PPP from a post-Bretton Woods panel: separating the wheat from the chaff," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1159-1186.
  101. Wahab, M.I.M. & Mamun, S.M.H. & Ongkunaruk, P., 2011. "EOQ models for a coordinated two-level international supply chain considering imperfect items and environmental impact," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-158, November.
  102. repec:wyi:journl:002068 is not listed on IDEAS
  103. Hassanain K., 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity: Further Evidence and Implications," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 61-75, April.
  104. Koedijk, Kees G., 1998. "The pendulum of exchange rate economics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-3, February.
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