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Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters
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- Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013.
"Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
- Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Working Papers in Economics 11/25, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-14, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2013.
- Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-057/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Michael McAleer & Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," KIER Working Papers 779, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Maiko Koga & Haruko Kato, 2017. "Behavioral Biases in Firms' Growth Expectations," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-9, Bank of Japan.
- Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
- Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2019.
"The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment,"
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 491-520, September.
- Colasante, Annarita & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva, 2018. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," MPRA Paper 84835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2018. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," Working Papers 2018/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
- H. O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2010.
"Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 673-676.
- H.O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2008. "Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example," Working Papers 2008-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
- Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
- Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2020.
"Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment: a simulation approach,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-116, January.
- Colasante, Annarita & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho Cuena, Eva & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast-Experiment: a simulation approach," MPRA Paper 77618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2017. "Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment: A Simulation Approach," Working Papers 2017/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
- Masahiro Ashiya, 2009. "Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 120-130.
- Jordi Pons-Novell, 2004. "Behavioural biases among interest rate forecasters?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 319-321.
- Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 25-36.
- Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Correcting the January optimism effect," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 927-933, September.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011.
"Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2009. "Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7," Jena Economics Research Papers 2009-091, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
- Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2013.
"When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5086-5103, December.
- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H., 2012. "When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124759, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2008. "Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
- Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun & Puah, Chin-Hong & Md Isa, Abu Hassan, 2012. "Theory of rational expectations hypothesis: banks and other financial institutions in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 36657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
- Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.
- Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
- Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2019. "Professional Forecasters and January," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.