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Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Working Papers 1947, Banco de España.
  2. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
  3. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
  4. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2019. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1748-1769.
  5. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
  8. repec:wrk:wrkemf:35 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  10. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
  11. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
  12. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 640-656, April.
  13. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1736-1760.
  14. Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2022. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 979-1022, July.
  15. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  16. Conrad, Christian & Glas, Alexander, 2018. "‘Déjà vol’ revisited: Survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios," Working Papers 0655, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  17. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2022. "Evaluating the European Central Bank’s uncertainty forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 321-330.
  18. Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
  20. repec:wrk:wrkemf:33 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. repec:wrk:wrkemf:24 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. David A. Comerford, 2024. "Response Bias in Survey Measures of Expectations: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations’ Inflation Module," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 933-953, June.
  23. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  24. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 634-646.
  25. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.
  26. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
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