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Modeling and forecasting the volatility of petroleum futures prices

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  2. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Value-at-risk Predictions of Precious Metals with Long Memory Volatility Models," MPRA Paper 53229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Shaher Al-Gounmeein Remal & Ismail Mohd Tahir, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting monthly Brent crude oil prices: a long memory and volatility approach," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 22(1), pages 29-54, March.
  4. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
  5. Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Non-linear volatility dynamics and risk management of precious metals," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 183-202.
  6. Onder Buberkoku, 2018. "Examining the Value-at-risk Performance of Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models: Evidence from Energy Commodities," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 36-50.
  7. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2020. "Stochastic multifactor models in risk management of energy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1918-1934, December.
  8. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
  9. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Futures-based forecasts: How useful are they for oil price volatility forecasting?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 639-649.
  10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-503 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
  12. Aepli, Matthias D. & Füss, Roland & Henriksen, Tom Erik S. & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2017. "Modeling the multivariate dynamic dependence structure of commodity futures portfolios," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 66-87.
  13. Riza Demirer & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Risk aversion and the predictability of crude oil market volatility: A forecasting experiment with random forests," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(8), pages 1755-1767, August.
  14. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "What the investors need to know about forecasting oil futures return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 128-139.
  15. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
  16. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2013. "Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?," MPRA Paper 46356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Hoon Kang, Sang, 2021. "Volatility spillovers between oil and equity markets and portfolio risk implications in the US and vulnerable EU countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-053 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya, 2012. "The Effect of Crude Oil Price on the Methanol price," MPRA Paper 49727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Al-Freedi, Ajab, 2020. "Forecasting volatility in the petroleum futures markets: A re-examination and extension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  21. Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Gupta, Rangan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 206-214.
  23. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Danyan Wen & Yudong Wang, 2022. "Forecasting Bitcoin volatility: A new insight from the threshold regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 633-652, April.
  24. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2024. "Predicting the volatility of major energy commodity prices: the dynamic persistence model," Papers 2402.01354, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  25. Alkathery, Mohammed A. & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2022. "Implications of clean energy, oil and emissions pricing for the GCC energy sector stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  26. Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu & Cai, Shenghua, 2016. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using HAR-type models with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 400-413.
  27. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2020. "Do bitcoin and precious metals do any good together? An extreme dependence and risk spillover analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  28. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "How do OPEC news and structural breaks impact returns and volatility in crude oil markets? Further evidence from a long memory process," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-354.
  29. Heni Boubaker, 2016. "A Comparative Study of the Performance of Estimating Long-Memory Parameter Using Wavelet-Based Entropies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 693-731, December.
  30. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2016. "An event study analysis of oil and gas firm acreage and reserve acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 215-227.
  31. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
  32. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2017. "Forecasting crude-oil market volatility: Further evidence with jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 508-519.
  33. Lin, Yu & Xiao, Yang & Li, Fuxing, 2020. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility via a HM-EGARCH model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  34. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2015. "Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, asymmetric volatility transmission, and hedging strategies for petroleum prices and USD exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 46-60.
  35. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 28-49.
  36. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2018. "Extreme dependence and risk spillovers between oil and Islamic stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-63.
  37. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Breaks or long range dependence in the energy futures volatility: Out-of-sample forecasting and VaR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 354-374.
  38. Tule, Moses & Dogo, Mela & Uzonwanne, Godfrey, 2018. "Volatility of stock market returns and the naira exchange rate," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 97-105.
  39. Loizidis, Stylianos & Kyprianou, Andreas & Georghiou, George E., 2024. "Electricity market price forecasting using ELM and Bootstrap analysis: A case study of the German and Finnish Day-Ahead markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
  40. Lin, Ling & Jiang, Yong & Xiao, Helu & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2020. "Crude oil price forecasting based on a novel hybrid long memory GARCH-M and wavelet analysis model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 543(C).
  41. Paraschiv, Florentina & Mudry, Pierre-Antoine & Andries, Alin Marius, 2015. "Stress-testing for portfolios of commodity futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-18.
  42. Dai, Peng-Fei & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Jin & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  43. Yongmei Fang & Bo Guan & Shangjuan Wu & Saeed Heravi, 2020. "Optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition for agricultural commodity futures prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 877-886, September.
  44. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2014. "The relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Do structural breaks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 206-217.
  45. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility: A new approach," MPRA Paper 69105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Zhao, Zhengling & Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Jingyun & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "A novel hybrid model with two-layer multivariate decomposition for crude oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
  47. Libo Yin, 2022. "The role of intermediary capital risk in predicting oil volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 401-416, January.
  48. Malinda & Maya & Jo-Hui & Chen, 2022. "Testing for the Long Memory and Multiple Structural Breaks in Consumer ETFs," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-6.
  49. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Li, Xiaolei, 2018. "The predictive content of CBOE crude oil volatility index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 837-850.
  50. Liu, Yuanyuan & Niu, Zibo & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Yin, Libo & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: The role of oil investor attention and its regime switching characteristics under a high-frequency framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
  51. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives," EconStor Preprints 167619, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  52. Li, Jinchao & Zhu, Shaowen & Wu, Qianqian, 2019. "Monthly crude oil spot price forecasting using variational mode decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 240-253.
  53. Halkos, George E. & Tsirivis, Apostolos S., 2019. "Effective energy commodity risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 234-250.
  54. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoude & Seong-Min Yoon, 2014. "Structural Breaks, Dynamic Correlations, Volatility Transmission, and Hedging Strategies for International Petroleum Prices and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 884, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
  55. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2022. "Long-memory and volatility spillovers across petroleum futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
  56. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2014. "True or spurious long memory in volatility: Further evidence on the energy futures markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 76-93.
  57. Yingying Xu & Donald Lien, 2022. "Forecasting volatilities of oil and gas assets: A comparison of GAS, GARCH, and EGARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 259-278, March.
  58. Niu, Zibo & Liu, Yuanyuan & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The role of coronavirus news in the volatility forecasting of crude oil futures markets: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  59. Xie Haibin & Zhou Mo & Hu Yi & Yu Mei, 2014. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Price with Extreme Values," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 193-205, June.
  60. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with exogenous predictors: As good as it GETS?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  61. Bogdan Wlodarczyk, 2017. "Zmiennosc cen na globalnym rynku surowcow a ryzyko banku," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 15(66), pages 107-124.
  62. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  63. Danyan Wen & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of Chinese stock market: A simple but efficient truncated approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 230-251, March.
  64. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2022. "Risk management of Bitcoin futures with GARCH models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
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