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The international transmission of US shocks—Evidence from Bayesian global vector autoregressions

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  1. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Florian Huber, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp248, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
  3. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  4. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2023. "Measuring International Uncertainty Using Global Vector Autoregressions with Drifting Parameters," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 770-793, April.
  5. Huber, Florian, 2016. "Density forecasting using Bayesian global vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 818-837.
  6. Caballero, Julián & Fernández, Andrés & Park, Jongho, 2019. "On corporate borrowing, credit spreads and economic activity in emerging economies: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 160-178.
  7. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
  8. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
  9. Degasperi,Riccardo & Hong, Seokki Simon & Ricco, Giovanni, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1257, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  10. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores & Simon Collinson, 2020. "Are there inequality spillovers? Evidence through a modified inequality measure and European dynamics of inequality," Working Papers 545, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  11. Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2020. "BGVAR: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with Shrinkage Priors in R," Globalization Institute Working Papers 395, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  12. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2022. "APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND FORECASTING IN HUGE‐DIMENSIONAL MULTICOUNTRY VARs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1625-1658, November.
  13. Michel C. de Souza, 2023. "On the transmission of us uncertainty shocks to the European labor market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1666-1679.
  14. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
  15. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
  16. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Working Paper Series 1868, European Central Bank.
  17. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2018. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: Evidence from a time-varying parameter GVAR model," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 31/2018, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
  18. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
  19. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2023. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120052, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  20. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.
  21. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  22. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  23. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  24. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Sonia Kumari Selvarajan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2023. "Cross‐country linkages between ASEAN and non‐ASEAN‐RCEP member states: A global VAR analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1782-1814, June.
  25. Martin Feldkircher & Gabriele Tondl, 2020. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 225-247, August.
  26. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  27. Florian Huber & Tam'as Krisztin & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2018. "A Bayesian panel VAR model to analyze the impact of climate change on high-income economies," Papers 1804.01554, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  28. Paredes, Joan, 2017. "Subsidising car purchases in the euro area: any spill-over on production?," Working Paper Series 2094, European Central Bank.
  29. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2019. "Spillovers from US monetary policy: evidence from a time varying parameter global vector auto‐regressive model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(3), pages 831-861, June.
  30. Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin & Reininger, Thomas, 2017. "International spillovers from Euro area and US credit and demand shocks: A focus on emerging Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-25.
  31. Huidan Xue & Chenguang Li & Liming Wang & Wen-Hao Su, 2021. "Spatial Price Transmission and Price Dynamics of Global Butter Export Market under Economic Shocks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.
  32. Fontaine, Idriss & Razafindravaosolonirina, Justinien & Didier, Laurent, 2018. "Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-19.
  33. Dieppe, Alistair & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ricci, Martino & Van Robays, Ine & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-98.
  34. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
  35. Thomas, Lina, 2023. "Ripple effect: Disentangling the global impact web of US monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
  36. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tawk, Nour, 2019. "Spillovers from Japan's Unconventional Monetary Policy: A global VAR Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 147-163.
  37. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
  38. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2024. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125291, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  39. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
  40. Fadejeva, Ludmila & Kantur, Zeynep, 2023. "Wealth distribution and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  41. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  42. Dées, Stéphane & Galesi, Alessandro, 2021. "The Global Financial Cycle and US monetary policy in an interconnected world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  43. Oyenyinka Sunday Omoshoro‐Jones & Lumengo Bonga‐Bonga, 2022. "Intra‐regional spillovers from Nigeria and South Africa to the rest of Africa: New evidence from a FAVAR model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 251-275, January.
  44. Apostolakis, George N. & Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2024. "International financial stress spillovers during times of unconventional monetary policy interventions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  45. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
  46. Markus Eller & Florian Huber & Helene Schuberth, 2016. "Understanding the drivers of capital flows into the CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 79-104.
  47. Olayinka Oyekola, 2022. "How Resilient Is the U.S. Economy to Foreign Disturbances?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-33, April.
  48. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  49. ter Ellen, Saskia & Jansen, Edvard & Midthjell, Nina Larsson, 2020. "ECB Spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  50. Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "International Effects of Euro Area Forward Guidance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1066-1110, October.
  51. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "Industry effects of unconventional monetary policy, within and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  52. Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Reininger, 2014. "International Transmission of Credit Shocks: Evidence from Global Vector Autoregression Model," Working Papers 2014/05, Latvijas Banka.
  53. Razieh Zahedi & Asghar Shahmoradi & Ali Taiebnia, 2022. "The ever-evolving trade pattern: a global VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1193-1218, September.
  54. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2021. "Reprint: Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  55. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  56. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.
  57. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "Does joint modelling of the world economy pay off? Evaluating global forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-100.
  58. De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2024. "The transmission of U.S. monetary policy to small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  59. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2024. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  60. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
  61. Akbari Dehbaghi, Simin & Arman, Seyed Aziz & Ahangari, Majid, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran\'s economy: Global Modeling," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 151-180, April.
  62. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_031 is not listed on IDEAS
  63. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin, 2024. "Uncertainty spill-overs: When policy and financial realms overlap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  64. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2024. "Agri‐food trade channel and the ASEAN macroeconomic impacts from output and price shocks," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 5-26, January.
  65. Thomas, Lina, 2023. "The tale of two titans: US and China's distinct impact on the global economy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  66. Julián Caballero & Andres Fernandez & Jongho Park, 2016. "On Corporate Borrowing, Credit Spreads and Economic Activity in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 95296, Inter-American Development Bank.
  67. Faryna, Oleksandr & Simola, Heli, 2021. "The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A global VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
  68. Hung, Ying-Shu & Lee, Chingnun & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2022. "China’s monetary policy and global stock markets: A new cointegration approach with smoothing structural changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 643-666.
  69. George N. Apostolakis & Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2023. "Macro‐financial effects of monetary policy easing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 715-738, April.
  70. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  71. Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2020. "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 1269, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  72. Markus Eller & Florian Huber & Helene Schuberth, 2016. "Weathering global shocks and macrofinancial vulnerabilities in emerging Europe: Comparing Turkey and Poland," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 46-65.
  73. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James D., 2020. "Drawing conclusions from structural vector autoregressions identified on the basis of sign restrictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  74. Florian Huber & Karin Klieber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Luca Onorante & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Asymmetries in Financial Spillovers," Papers 2410.16214, arXiv.org.
  75. Feng, Ling & Pei, Tingting & Zhou, Zhiguang, 2024. "The impact of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese firms’ innovation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1097-1111.
  76. Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2019. "High-frequency and heteroskedasticity identification in multicountry models: Revisiting spillovers of monetary shocks," Papers 1912.03158, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
  77. De Santis, Roberto A. & Zimic, Srečko, 2022. "Interest rates and foreign spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  78. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
  79. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
  80. Burriel, Pablo & Galesi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of ECB unconventional monetary policies across euro area countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 210-229.
  81. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
  82. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Effects of external shocks on Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  83. Benecká, Soňa & Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin, 2020. "The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1310-1333.
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