Improving the value at risk forecasts: Theory and evidence from the financial crisis

Citations

Cited by:

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2. Lazar, Emese & Xue, Xiaohan, 2020. "Forecasting risk measures using intraday data in a generalized autoregressive score framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1057-1072.
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4. Evangelos Vasileiou, 2022. "Inaccurate Value at Risk Estimations: Bad Modeling or Inappropriate Data?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 1155-1171, March.
5. Bayer, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 56-77.
6. Dimitriadis, Timo & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2021. "Forecast encompassing tests for the expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 604-621.
7. Theo Berger & Jana Koubová, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin returns: Econometric time series analysis vs. machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2904-2916, November.
8. Zhimin Wu & Guanghui Cai, 2024. "Can intraday data improve the joint estimation and prediction of risk measures? Evidence from a variety of realized measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1956-1974, September.
9. Carlos Trucíos & James W. Taylor, 2023. "A comparison of methods for forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 989-1007, July.
10. Aloui, Chaker & Hamida, Hela ben, 2014. "Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 349-380.
11. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Kliber, Agata, 2021. "Information content of liquidity and volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
12. Berger, Theo, 2016. "On the isolated impact of copulas on risk measurement: Asimulation study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 475-481.
13. Dias, Alexandra, 2013. "Market capitalization and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5248-5260.
14. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
15. Halbleib, Roxana & Dimitriadis, Timo, 2019. "How informative is high-frequency data for tail risk estimation and forecasting? An intrinsic time perspectice," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203669, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
16. Timo Dimitriadis & Julie Schnaitmann, 2019. "Forecast Encompassing Tests for the Expected Shortfall," Papers 1908.04569, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
17. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani & Kehan Li, 2016. "Measuring risks in the extreme tail: The extreme VaR and its confidence interval," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16034rr, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2017.
18. David Happersberger & Harald Lohre & Ingmar Nolte, 2020. "Estimating portfolio risk for tail risk protection strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1107-1146, September.
19. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Kehan Li, 2017. "Measuring risks in the extreme tail: The extreme VaR and its confidence interval," Post-Print halshs-01317391, HAL.
20. Basak, Suryoday & Kar, Saibal & Saha, Snehanshu & Khaidem, Luckyson & Dey, Sudeepa Roy, 2019. "Predicting the direction of stock market prices using tree-based classifiers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 552-567.
21. Taylor, James W., 2020. "Forecast combinations for value at risk and expected shortfall," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 428-441.
22. Sinha, Pankaj & Agnihotri, Shalini, 2014. "Sensitivity of Value at Risk estimation to NonNormality of returns and Market capitalization," MPRA Paper 56307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 May 2014.
23. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-33.
    • Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall using Fractionally Integrated Models of Conditional Volatility: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 80433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
24. Berger, Theo & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Improving daily Value-at-Risk forecasts: The relevance of short-run volatility for regulatory quality assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 30-46.
25. Szymon Lis & Marcin Chlebus, 2021. "Comparison of the accuracy in VaR forecasting for commodities using different methods of combining forecasts," Working Papers 2021-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
26. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Naimoli & Giuseppe Storti, 2024. "Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts," Papers 2406.06235, arXiv.org.
27. Timo Dimitriadis & Sebastian Bayer, 2017. "A Joint Quantile and Expected Shortfall Regression Framework," Papers 1704.02213, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2017.
28. Stavroula P. Fameliti & Vasiliki D. Skintzi, 2020. "Predictive ability and economic gains from volatility forecast combinations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 200-219, March.
29. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2021. "Measuring bulk shipping prices risk," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 291-309, June.