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A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models
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Cited by:
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Wensheng Kang & Jing Wang, 2018. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and earnings surprises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 375-388, August.
- David Ardia & Arnaud Dufays & Carlos Ordás Criado, 2024.
"Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1155-1168, October.
- Ardia, David & Dufays, Arnaud & Ordás Criado, Carlos, 2023. "Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods," MPRA Paper 119486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019.
"Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Forecasting With High Dimensional Panel VARs," Working Papers 2015_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Koop, G & Korobilis, D, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 21329, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Working Paper series 18-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," MPRA Paper 84275, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Jan 2018.
- Jiang, Feiyu & Zhao, Zifeng & Shao, Xiaofeng, 2023.
"Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: A change-point perspective,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 1-17.
- Feiyu Jiang & Zifeng Zhao & Xiaofeng Shao, 2020. "Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Infection Curve: A Change-Point Perspective," Papers 2007.04553, arXiv.org.
- Arnaud Dufays & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2019.
"Sparse Change-point HAR Models for Realized Variance,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 857-880, September.
- Arnaud Dufays & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2016. "Sparse Change-point HAR Models for Realized Variance," Cahiers de recherche 1607, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
- Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2017. "A New Time‐Varying Parameter Autoregressive Model for U.S. Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 969-995, August.
- Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015.
"Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 150-163.
- Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Kyung Hwan Yoon, 2015. "Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market," CAMA Working Papers 2015-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2017.
"Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Under Model Instability,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 183-201, April.
- Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2019.
"Bayesian inference and prediction of a multiple-change-point panel model with nonparametric priors,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 187-202.
- Mark Fisher & Mark J. Jensen, 2018. "Bayesian Inference and Prediction of a Multiple-Change-Point Panel Model with Nonparametric Priors," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Mark Fisher & Mark J. Jensen, 2018. "Bayesian Inference and Prediction of a Multiple-Change-Point Panel Model with Nonparametric Priors," Working Paper series 18-12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Artem Prokhorov & Peter Radchenko & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2024. "Change-Point Detection in Time Series Using Mixed Integer Programming," Papers 2408.05665, arXiv.org.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2023.
"Bayesian Dynamic Variable Selection In High Dimensions,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1047-1074, August.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," Papers 1809.03031, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
- Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary, 2020. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," MPRA Paper 100164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," Working Papers 2020_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary, 2018.
"Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models,"
Essex Finance Centre Working Papers
22665, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2018. "Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models," MPRA Paper 87972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models," Working Paper series 18-31, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Anwen Yin, 2024. "Predictive model averaging with parameter instability and heteroskedasticity," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 418-442, April.
- Jiawen Luo & Shengjie Fu & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of US Inflation: Evidence from Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," Working Papers 202420, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Point and density forecasting of macroeconomic and financial uncertainties of the USA," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 700-707, July.
- Nonejad Nima, 2015. "Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 561-584, December.
- Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pintér, Gábor, 2017.
"Forecasting with VAR models: Fat tails and stochastic volatility,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1124-1143.
- Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Mumtaz, Haroon & Pinter, Gabor, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR models: fat tails and stochastic volatility," Bank of England working papers 528, Bank of England.
- Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
- Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
- Yu Jeffrey Hu & Jeroen Rombouts & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Fast Forecasting of Unstable Data Streams for On-Demand Service Platforms," Papers 2303.01887, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
- Luis Uzeda, 2022.
"State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Luis Uzeda, 2016. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-632, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011.
"UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2307-2318, September.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korompilis, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," Working Papers 0917, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," Working Papers 1118, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-39, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- C. Y. Tan & Y. B. Koh & K. H. Ng & K. H. Ng, 2019. "Structural Change Analysis of Active Cryptocurrency Market," Papers 1909.10679, arXiv.org.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2021.
"High-Dimensional Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Message Passing Algorithms,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 493-504, March.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," MPRA Paper 96079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," Working Papers 2019_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," Working Paper series 19-17, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," Papers 2004.11485, arXiv.org.
- Eo Yunjong, 2016.
"Structural changes in inflation dynamics: multiple breaks at different dates for different parameters,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 211-231, June.
- Eo, Yunjong, 2015. "Structural Changes in Inflation Dynamics: Multiple Breaks at Different Dates for Different Parameters," Working Papers 2015-18, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2015.
- Feiyu Jiang & Zifeng Zhao & Xiaofeng Shao, 2022. "Modelling the COVID‐19 infection trajectory: A piecewise linear quantile trend model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(5), pages 1589-1607, November.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2013.
"Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2010. "VAR Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Paper series 51_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Apr 2011.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011.
"A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1134, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Kirsten Thompson & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015.
"Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 486-501, May.
- Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Working Papers 201383, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
- Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
- Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
- Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
- Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price changes and the United Kingdom real gross domestic product growth rate: An out-of-sample investigation," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
- Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
- Korobilis, D, 2017.
"Forecasting with many predictors using message passing algorithms,"
Essex Finance Centre Working Papers
19565, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," Working Paper series 19-17, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms," MPRA Paper 96079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2016.
"Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1392-1406, November.
- Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2014. "Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Forecasting aggregate stock market volatility using financial and macroeconomic predictors: Which models forecast best, when and why?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 131-154.
- Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2020.
"Forecasting core inflation: the case of South Africa,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(28), pages 3004-3022, June.
- Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar Author-Name-First Mehmet & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 15-08, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
- Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201543, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2016. "Hidden Markov models in time series, with applications in economics," Working Papers 16.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Rumler, Fabio, 2020.
"Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 383-393.
- Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Kerry Patterson & Fabio Rumler, 2014. "The Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2014-03, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
- Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler, 2018. "NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-05, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
- Bauwens, Luc & De Backer, Bruno & Dufays, Arnaud, 2014.
"A Bayesian method of change-point estimation with recurrent regimes: Application to GARCH models,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 207-229.
- BAUWENS, Luc & DE BACKER, Bruno & DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2014. "A Bayesian method of change-point estimation with recurrent regimes: application to GARCH models," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2641, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Augustyniak, Maciej & Dufays, Arnaud, 2018. "Modeling macroeconomic series with regime-switching models characterized by a high-dimensional state space," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 122-126.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2020. "Point and Density Forecasting of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainties of the United States," Working Papers 202058, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Hossein Hassani & Zara Ghodsi & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli Segnon, 2017.
"Forecasting Home Sales in the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy Using Singular Spectrum Analysis,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 83-97, January.
- Hossein Hassani & Zara Ghodsi & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli K. Segnon, 2014. "Forecasting Home Sales in the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy Using Singular Spectrum Analysis," Working Papers 201482, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2016. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states," Working Papers 204, Bank of Greece.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2018. "The dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the US stock market returns of upstream oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 505-516.
- Arnaud Dufays & Zhuo Li & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Yong Song, 2021. "Sparse change‐point VAR models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 703-727, September.
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