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Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis

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Cited by:

  1. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 836-882, June.
  2. Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
  3. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
  4. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 698-711.
  5. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
  6. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 349-366, November.
  7. Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W & Whiteman, Charles H, 2005. "Forecasting Using Relative Entropy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 383-401, June.
  8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
  9. P. Geoffrey Allen & Robert Fildes, 2005. "Levels, Differences and ECMs – Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 881-904, December.
  10. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
  11. Fabian Fink & Yves S. Schüler, 2013. "The Transmission of US Financial Stress: Evidence for Emerging Market Economies," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  12. Fabio Canova & Fernando J. Pérez Forero, 2012. "Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs," Economics Working Papers 1321, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Zachary F. Fisher & Younghoon Kim & Barbara L. Fredrickson & Vladas Pipiras, 2022. "Penalized Estimation and Forecasting of Multiple Subject Intensive Longitudinal Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 1-29, June.
  14. Andrew Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Transparency, expectations and forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 91(Q 1), pages 1-25.
  15. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
  16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  17. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
  18. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
  19. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk Perceptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 18123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. John H. Huston & Roger W. Spencer, 2009. "Speculative excess and the Federal Reserve's response," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
  21. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1203-1242, December.
  22. Fink, Fabian & Schüler, Yves S., 2015. "The transmission of US systemic financial stress: Evidence for emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-26.
  23. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
  24. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
  25. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 145-163, March.
  26. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical analysis of policy interventions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  27. Kenneth B. Petersen & Vladimir Pozdnyakov, 2008. "Predicting the Fed," Working papers 2008-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  28. Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  29. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
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