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Energy and motorization: scenarios for China's 2005-2020 energy balance

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  • Zhu, Ying

Abstract

Der in China beginnende Motorisierungsprozess führt zwangsläufig zu einer Konfrontation mit den Umwelt- und Ressourcenkonflikten, die mit der erdölbasierten Automobiltechnologie des vergangenen Jahrhunderts Hand in Hand gehen. Dadurch würde sich zum einen die gegenwärtig problematische Erdölenergiebilanz des Landes durch erhöhten CO²-Ausstoß verschärfen. Zum anderen würde der Aufbau einer chinesischen automobilen Infrastruktur auf Erdölbasis, die Ressourcenknappheit in diesem Sektor, die globalen Umweltprobleme und die Sicherung der weltweiten Energiebilanz negativ beeinflussen. Eine realistische Alternative für China ist ein Quantensprung auf dem Gebiet der Automobiltechnologie zu vollziehen und in Wasserstoffmotoren zu investieren. China kann mit einer Automobilwirtschaft auf der Basis einer Wasserstofftechnologie die durch Erdölverbrennung geschaffenen Umweltprobleme umgehen. Dieser Artikel untersucht das Potential Chinas zu einem solchen Quantensprung in der Automobiltechnologie. Ein wesentlicher Aspekt ist die Prüfung der Energiebilanz Chinas in den Jahren 1990-2000, die es ermöglicht den Energieverbrauch und die Produktion auf Quellenbasis internationaler Organisationen und wissenschaftlicher Arbeiten, zueinander in ein Verhältnis zu setzen. Die Energiebilanz der einzelnen Sektoren Atomkraft, Kohle, Erdöl und Erdgas wird analysiert und vergleichend werden die zukünftigen Trends prognostiziert. Für die Implementation von Wasserstofftechnologie ist die Verfügbarkeit und Nutzung von Energieressourcen von zentraler Bedeutung. Eine Analyse der Energiebilanz ist daher die Grundlage für eine wissenschaftlich fundierte Einschätzung des Potentials Chinas zu einem solchen technologischen Quantensprung.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Ying, 2005. "Energy and motorization: scenarios for China's 2005-2020 energy balance," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Innovation and Organization SP III 2005-105, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbior:spiii2005105
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