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Tax Cuts Starve the Beast! Evidence from Germany

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  • Stöhlker, Daniel
  • Neumeier, Florian
  • Fuest, Clemens

Abstract

This paper empirically evaluates how fiscal policy reacts to changes in the government's fiscal situation. Utilizing panel data from the German states covering the period from 1992 to 2011, we assess to what extent exogenous changes in tax revenues affect total public revenues, aggregate public expenditure as well as specific sub-categories of government spending. Applying the narrative approach pioneered by Romer and Romer (2010), we construct a measure of exogenous tax shocks, allowing us to identify the causal effect of tax changes on fiscal policy. Our findings indicate that tax changes trigger expenditure adjustments into the same direction after 2 to 3 years, specifically with respect to spending on governmental administration, health expenditures and spending on infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Stöhlker, Daniel & Neumeier, Florian & Fuest, Clemens, 2018. "Tax Cuts Starve the Beast! Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181592, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181592
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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2009. "Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 139-214.
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    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    4. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emblemsvåg, Jan, 2022. "Wind energy is not sustainable when balanced by fossil energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    2. Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp, 2022. "Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Fernando M. Martin, 2019. "How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal Policy Rules," Working Papers 2019-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 08 Aug 2023.
    4. Fernando Martin, 2019. "How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules," 2019 Meeting Papers 1181, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxation; Fiscal Policy; Tax-Spend; Public Expenditure; Narrative Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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