IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc16/145609.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Humanitäre Zuwanderung und die Nachhaltigkeit der deutschen Staatsfinanzen

Author

Listed:
  • Bonin, Holger
  • Ludwig, Alexander

Abstract

Der Beitrag untersucht mit Hilfe der Generationenbilanzierung die möglichen Folgen der aktuellen humanitären Zuwanderung nach Deutschland für die Nachhaltigkeit der Staatsfinanzen. Es werden sowohl statische Projektionen als auch dynamische Simulationsrechnungen mit endogenen makroökonomischen Anpassungen an die Aufnahme der überdurchschnittlich jungen und unterdurchschnittlich qualifizierten Flüchtlinge durchgeführt. Die Befunde zeigen, dass die humanitäre Zuwanderung nach Deutschland die Nachhaltigkeit der Staatsfinanzen eher verschlechtern als verbessern dürfte. Die finanziellen Zusatzlasten für die einheimische Bevölkerung erscheinen aber noch beherrschbar und sind deutlich geringer als die Zusatzlasten durch die gesellschaftliche Alterung. Zudem könnten wirksame aktive Maßnahmen für eine bessere berufliche Qualifizierung und schnellere wirtschaftliche Integration der Flüchtlinge helfen, dem finanzpolitischen Ziel nachhaltiger Staatsfinanzen näher zu kommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonin, Holger & Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "Humanitäre Zuwanderung und die Nachhaltigkeit der deutschen Staatsfinanzen," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/145609/1/VfS_2016_pid_6501.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Welfare Migration: Is the Net Fiscal Burden a Good Measure of its Economic Impact on the Welfare of the Native-Born Population?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 50(4), pages 709-716.
    3. Xavier Chojnicki & Frédéric Docquier & Lionel Ragot, 2011. "Should the US have locked heaven’s door?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 317-359, January.
    4. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2008: Migration und Nachhaltigkeit," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 103, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    2. Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2008. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz - Update 2008: Migration und Nachhaltigkeit," FZG Discussion Papers 30, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    3. Karin Mayr, 2004. "The fiscal impact of immigrants in Austria--a generational accounting analysis," Economics working papers 2004-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    5. Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2001. "Beyond the Toledo agreement: the intergenerational impact of the Spanish Pension Reform," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 111-130.
    6. Ben-Gad, M., 2012. "On deficit bias and immigration," Working Papers 12/09, Department of Economics, City University London.
    7. Michael Ben-Gad, 2013. "Public Deficit Bias and Immigration," 2013 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Marco Bassetto, 2009. "The Research Agenda: Marco Bassetto on the Quantitative Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Rules," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), April.
    9. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan & Vatter, Johannes, 2009. "Ehrbare Staaten? Die deutsche Generationenbilanz im internationalen Vergleich," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 107, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    10. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Seuffert, Stefan, 2020. "Ehrbarer Staat? Wege und Irrwege der Rentenpolitik im Lichte der Generationenbilanz," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 148, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    11. Xavier Chojnicki, 2013. "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in France: A Generational Accounting Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1065-1090, August.
    12. repec:zbw:rwidps:0020 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Stefan Moog & Christoph Müller, 2011. "Zur Erhöhung der Regelaltersgrenze in Deutschland: eine internationale Perspektive," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(2), pages 33-51.
    14. Feist, Karen & Krimmer, Pascal & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2001. "Intergenerative Effekte einer lebenszyklusorientierten Einkommensteuerreform: Die Einfachsteuer des Heidelberger Steuerkreises," Discussion Papers 98, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    15. Krimmer, Pascal & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Intergenerative Umverteilung und Wachstumsimpulse der Steuerreformen 1999 bis 2005: Die Perspektive der Generationenbilanz," Discussion Papers 105, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    16. Ndeye Penda Sokhna & Lionel Ragot & Xavier Chojnicki, 2018. "The fiscal impact of 30 years of immigration in France: an accounting approach," Working Papers hal-04141694, HAL.
    17. Alan J. Auerbach & Young Jun Chun & Ilho Yoo, 2005. "The Fiscal Burden of Korean Reunification: A Generational Accounting Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 62-97, March.
    18. Schultis Sebastian & Seuffert Stefan & Stramka Sebastian, 2024. "Der demografische Wandel im Wandel," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(4), pages 269-274, April.
    19. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
    20. Bahnsen, Lewe & Manthei, Gerrit & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2017. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz. Update 2017: Nachhaltigkeit im Klammergriff des Wahlkampfes," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 138, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    21. Christoph Borgmann & Matthias Heidler, 2003. "Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 1021, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.