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Seasonal adjustment and reliability of euro area GDP – Increased uncertainty in times of unusual developments?

Author

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  • Mehrhoff, Jens
  • Eiglsperger, Martin
  • Haine, Wim

Abstract

Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) data are inevitably surrounded by uncertainty. Disregarding methodological improvements, two main sources of revisions can be distinguished: First, revisions that reflect the incorporation of more comprehensive or more representative, but generally less timely, source data and second, revisions that are related to seasonal adjustment. This paper aims to get some insights into the overall statistical uncertainty surrounding first estimates of quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP volume growth in the euro area, in particular the so-called "flash estimate", published by Eurostat around 45 days after the end of the reference quarter, and the first regular estimate, published around two and a half weeks later.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrhoff, Jens & Eiglsperger, Martin & Haine, Wim, 2011. "Seasonal adjustment and reliability of euro area GDP – Increased uncertainty in times of unusual developments?," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48721, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48721
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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