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Contagion of currency crises: Some theoretical and empirical analysis

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  • Karmann, Alexander
  • Greßmann, Oliver
  • Hott, Christian

Abstract

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the other country. The behavior of the lowly informed investors multiplies this effect and the other country becomes more and more vulnerable. In the empirical part we focus on the Asian crisis (1997/98). Using a LOGIT approach we can show that contagion, in the sense of a crisis not explainable by economic fundamentals but by exchange rate losses resulting from investment in other countries, seems to have caused the currency crises of the Philippines and especially of Singapore.

Suggested Citation

  • Karmann, Alexander & Greßmann, Oliver & Hott, Christian, 2002. "Contagion of currency crises: Some theoretical and empirical analysis," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2003. "Sovereign risk in a structural approach: Evaluating sovereign ability-to-pay and probability of default," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Currency crises; Asian crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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