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Market risk: Exponential weighting in the value-at-risk calculation

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  • Broll, Udo
  • Förster, Andreas

Abstract

When measuring market risk, credit institutions and Alternative Investment Fund Managers may deviate from equally weighting historical data in their Value-at-Risk calculation and instead use an exponential time series weighting. The use of exponential weighting in the Value-at-Risk calculation is very popular because it takes into account changes in market volatility (immediately) and can therefore quickly adapt to VaR. In less volatile market phases, this leads to a reduction in VaR and thus to lower own funds requirements for credit institutions. However, in the exponential weighting a high volatility in the past is quickly forgotten and the VaR can be underestimated when using exponential weighting and the VaR may be underestimated. To prevent this, credit institutions or Alternative Investment Fund Managers are not completely free to choose a weighting (decay) factor. This article describes the legal requirements and deals with the calculation of the permissible weighting factor. As an example we use the exchange rate between Euro and Polish zloty to estimate the Value-at-Risk. We show the calculation of the weighting factor with two different approaches. This article also discusses exceptions to the general legal requirements

Suggested Citation

  • Broll, Udo & Förster, Andreas, 2020. "Market risk: Exponential weighting in the value-at-risk calculation," CEPIE Working Papers 04/20, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tudcep:0420
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Udo Broll & Anna Sobiech & Jack E. Wahl, 2012. "Banking Firm, Equity and Value at Risk," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(4), December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk management; market risk; exponentially weighted moving average; weighting scheme; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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